Prediction of Job Performance by Indian Managers: Four Tests of the Two-Stage Averaging-Multiplying Model

Prediction of job performance from information about motivation and ability of subordinates was studied. Experiment 1 made the first test by manipulating reliability of information with managers (n = 22) and professors (n = 22). At the first stage of integration, subjects averaged motivation and ability information with their corresponding initial opinions. At the second stage, however, they integrated motivation and ability information differently. Managers followed the multiplying rule; professors followed the constant-weight averaging rule. Experiment 2 (n = 22) paired three or one motivation cue with one ability cue. Predictions from information about either motivation or ability were also obtained. The three motivation cues were first averaged and then multiplied by ability as Test 2 predicted. The combined factorial plots of the Motivation x Ability effects from the two-cue and four-cue descriptions also had the linear fan pattern prescribed by Test 3. However, Test 4, which predicted that the initial opinion of the unavailable information would multiply the given information, needed an additional parameter of imputed value for the unavailable information. Theoretical, methodological, and practical implications of the results were discussed.