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Does the Gravity Model Explain India's Direction of Trade? A Panel Data Approach

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Bhattacharyya Ranajoy
Banerjee Tathagata
Abstract

In this paper we apply the gravity model to the panel consisting of India’s yearly bilateral trade data with all its trading partners in the second half of the twentieth century. The main conclusions that emerge from our analyses are: (1) The core gravity model can explain around 43 per cent of the fluctuations in India’s direction of trade in the second half of the twentieth century (2) India’s trade responds less than proportionally to size and more than proportionally to distance (3) Colonial heritage is still an important factor in determining India’s direction of trade at least in the second half of the twentieth century (4) India trades more with developed rather than underdeveloped countries, however (5) size has more determining influence on India’s trade than the level of development of the trading partner.

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Paper provided by Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department in its series IIMA Working Papers with number 2006-09-01.

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Date of creation: 13 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:iim:iimawp:2006-09-01

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  1. Simon J. Evenett & Wolfgang Keller, 1998. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation," NBER Working Papers 6529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Imperfect competition and international trade: Evidence from fourteen industrial countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 62-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Leamer, Edward E. & Levinsohn, James, 1995. "International trade theory: The evidence," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1339-1394 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert C. Feenstra & James A. Markusen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Undertstanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods," NBER Working Papers 6804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Brun, Jean-François & Carrère, Céline & de Melo, Jaime & Guillaumont, Patrick, 2002. "Has Distance Died? Evidence from a Panel Gravity Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 3500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Amita Batra, 2004. "India's global trade potential: The gravity model approach," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 151, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India. [Downloadable!]
  7. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-16, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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