Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Arvind Subramanian

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Martin Kessler

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

A country’s rise to economic dominance tends to be accompanied by its currency becoming a reference point, with other currencies tracking it implicitly or explicitly. For a sample comprising emerging-market economies, we show that in the last three years, the renminbi (RMB) has increasingly become a reference currency, which we define as one that exhibits a high degree of co-movement with other currencies. In East Asia, there is already a RMB bloc, because the RMB has become the dominant reference currency, eclipsing the US dollar, which is a historic development. In this region, 7 currencies out of 10 co-move more closely with the RMB than with the dollar, with the average value of the co-movement coefficient relative to the RMB being about 60 percent greater than that for the dollar. We find that co-movements with a reference currency, especially for the RMB, are associated with trade integration. We draw some lessons for the prospects for the RMB bloc to move beyond Asia based on a comparison of the RMB’s situation today and that of the Japanese yen in the early 1990s. If trade were the sole driver, a more global RMB bloc could emerge by the mid-2030s, but complementary reforms of the financial and external sectors could considerably expedite the process.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.piie.com/publications/wp/wp12-19.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number WP12-19.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision: 2013
Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp12-19

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036-1903
Phone: 202-328-9000
Fax: 202-659-3225
Email:
Web page: http://www.piie.com
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Exchange rates; China; renminbi; currency internationalization; reserve currency;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  2. Eric Girardin, 2011. "A De Facto Asian-Currency Unit Bloc in East Asia : It Has Been There but We Did Not Look for It," Finance Working Papers 23275, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Victor Pontines & Reza Y. Siregar, 2010. "Fear of Appreciation in East and Southeast Asia: The Role of the Chinese Renminbi," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp78, June.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "Assessing China’s Exchange Rate Regime," CEPR Discussion Papers 6264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Haldane, A G & Hall, S G, 1991. "Sterling's Relationship with the Dollar and the Deutschemark: 1976-89," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 436-43, May.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey & Xie, Daniel, 2010. "Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series rwp10-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  7. Balasubramaniam, Vimal & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Who cares about the Chinese Yuan?," Working Papers 11/89, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  8. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "Internationalization of the RMB and Historical Precedents," Scholarly Articles 10592469, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  9. Yung Chul Park & Chi-Young Song, 2011. "Renminbi Internationalization: Prospects and Implications for Economic Integration in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(3), pages 42-72, October.
  10. Guonan Ma & Robert McCauley, 2010. "The evolving renminbi regime and implications for Asian currency stability," BIS Working Papers 321, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. C. Randall Henning, 2012. "Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series WP12-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  12. Fang, Ying & Huang, Shicheng & Niu, Linlin, 2012. "De facto currency baskets of China and East Asian economies: The rising weights," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  13. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen Rajan, 2010. "A note on exchange rate regimes in Asia: Are they really what they claim to be?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2864-2876.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Volz, Ulrich, 2013. "RMB internationalisation and currency co-operation in East Asia," Working Papers 125, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp12-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peterson Institute webmaster).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.