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What’s on the Table? The Doha Round as of August 2009

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Author Info

  • Matthew Adler

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Claire Brunel

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Gary Clyde Hufbauer

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Jeffrey J. Schott

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

The Doha Round is the longest-running trade liberalization negotiation in the postwar era. Despite its longevity, the end is not yet in sight as parties disagree on the depth of liberalization necessary in agriculture and nonagricultural market access (NAMA). This rift is prolonging the Round's completion and hindering the discussion of other important issues on the negotiating agenda, particularly services. To shed light on the debate concerning the benefits from Doha, this paper first estimates, using three metrics, the potential gains from liberalization in agriculture and NAMA resulting from the specific "modalities" set forth in papers drafted by the chairs of the Doha negotiating groups. Next, the study estimates the benefits that could result from sector initiatives in chemicals, electronic/electrical goods, and environmental goods that go beyond the tariff cuts outlined in the negotiating modalities. Finally, prospective gains from liberalization of services barriers and improvements in trade facilitation are also analyzed. Overall, we estimate that the boost to global exports from concluding the Doha Round could range between $180 billion and $520 billion annually. Likewise, the potential GDP gains are significant, between $300 billion and $700 billion annually, and well balanced between developed and developing countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number WP09-6.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp09-6

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Keywords: International Trade; World Trade Organization; Doha Round; Tariff Liberalization; Nontariff Barrier Liberalization.International Trade; World Trade Organization; Doha Round; Tariff Liberalization; Nontariff Barrier Liberalization.;

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Cited by:
  1. Nakgyoon Choi, 2010. "General Equilibrium Analysis of DDA Trade Liberalization : Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Trade Working Papers 23109, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  2. Patrick Messerlin, 2010. "The Doha Round," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqi, Sciences Po.
  3. Popa, Diana, 2011. "Runda Doha: început fără sfârşit
    [Doha Round: the endless beginning]
    ," MPRA Paper 28764, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2011.
  4. Hess, Sebastian & Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan von & Sperlich, Stefan, 2010. "Numbers for Pascal: explaining differences in the estimated benefits of the Doha Development Agenda," DARE Discussion Papers 1001, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
  5. Hoekman, Bernard & Martin, Will & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2009. "Conclude Doha : it matters !," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5135, The World Bank.
  6. Wim Naudé, 2009. "Fallacies about the Global Financial Crisis Harms Recovery in the Poorest Countries," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(4), pages 3-12, 01.

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