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Trade Diversion in the 'Left-Outs' in the Eastward Enlargement of the European Union

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Author Info
Fidrmuc, Jarko (Department of Economics, Institute for Advanced Studies)

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Abstract

I analyze three scenarios including no Eastward enlargement of the EU and the accession of Central European countries including and excluding Slovakia. The formulation of these scenarios is derived from the evidence on former relations between EU and EFTA as estimated by gravity models for total trade and major SITC one-digit commodity groups. A significant part of Slovakia's extraordinary trade relations with the Czech Republic will diminish if the country does not participate in the first wave of Eastward enlargement of the EU. These export losses can be compensated by export gains to Hungary and Poland.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/tec/te-8.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 1999
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Transition Economics Series with number 8.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Apr 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihstep:8

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Related research
Keywords: Trade predictions; Gravity model; Eastern enlargement of the EU; Slovakia;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F1 - International Economics - - Trade
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Markusen, James R & Wigle, Randall M, 1990. "Explaining the Volume of North-South Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1206-15, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry J. Eichengreen, 1995. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," IMF Working Papers 95/109, International Monetary Fund.
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  4. Robert Holzmann & Christian Thimann & Angela Petz, 1994. "Pressure to Adjust: Consequences for the OECD Countries from Reforms in Eastern Europe," International Trade 9403001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  7. Markusen, James R, 1986. "Explaining the Volume of Trade: An Eclectic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1002-11, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2000. "Disintegration and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2641, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in the Czech Republic and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00008, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paas, Tiiu, 2002. "Gravity Approach for Exploring Baltic Sea Regional Integration in the Field of International Trade," Discussion Paper Series 26379, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fidrmuc, J. & Fidrmuc, J., 2000. "Integration, disintegration and trade in Europe : evolution of trade relations during the 1990s," Discussion Paper 12, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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