The Asia Financial Crises and Exchange Rates
AbstractWe analyse the volatility structure of Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar (USD) for the Thai Baht THB, the Philippine Peso PHP, the Indonesian Rupiah IDR and the South Korean Won KRW. Our goal is to check if the characteristics of the volatility dynamics have changed in a K-state switching AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model in the last decade 1995-2008 covering the Asian crisis. We estimate the model of Haas et al. (2003) with MCMC and we find that for the four currencies the volatility dynamics has changed at least once.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 254.
Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
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- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-09-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2010-09-18 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2010-09-18 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2010-09-18 (South East Asia)
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