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Regional Growth in Central Europe. Long-term Effects of Population and Traffic Structure

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Author Info

  • Polasek, Wolfgang

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

  • Berrer, Helmut

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

Abstract

In a simple growth model we explore the current and future growth effects of the regional population structure. Regional GDP growth in 227 regions within six countries in central Europe is explored as how they depend on the young and old dependency ratio. The young dependency ratio (YDR) is defined as ratio of the less than 20 years old and the old dependency ratio (ODR) as the more than 60 years old divided by the total population. We found a medium sized negative correlation of these ratios on regional growth and the long-term forecasts for the year 2020 are for most regions rather negative if only the population structure is considered. Similar scenarios can be also obtained for employment and population growth. The long-term forecasts improve if traffic accessibilities and dynamic interactions are introduced into the model.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-172.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 172.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:172

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Related research

Keywords: Panel data; Simpson paradox; GDP; Employment and population growth; Long-term forecasts;

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References

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  1. Brunow, Stephan & Hirte, Georg, 2005. "Age Structure and Regional Income Growth," Discussion Papers 1/2005, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Sciences "Friedrich List", Institute for Transport and Economics.
  2. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1, May.
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Polasek, Wolfgang & Schwarzbauer, Wolfgang, 2006. "Traffic Accessibility and the Effect on Firms and Population in 99 Austrian Regions," Economics Series 198, Institute for Advanced Studies.

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