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Regional Growth in Central Europe. Long-term Effects of Population and Traffic Structure

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Author Info
Polasek, Wolfgang (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)
Berrer, Helmut (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna)

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Abstract

In a simple growth model we explore the current and future growth effects of the regional population structure. Regional GDP growth in 227 regions within six countries in central Europe is explored as how they depend on the young and old dependency ratio. The young dependency ratio (YDR) is defined as ratio of the less than 20 years old and the old dependency ratio (ODR) as the more than 60 years old divided by the total population. We found a medium sized negative correlation of these ratios on regional growth and the long-term forecasts for the year 2020 are for most regions rather negative if only the population structure is considered. Similar scenarios can be also obtained for employment and population growth. The long-term forecasts improve if traffic accessibilities and dynamic interactions are introduced into the model.

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File URL: http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-172.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Advanced Studies in its series Economics Series with number 172.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:172

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Related research
Keywords: Panel data; Simpson paradox; GDP; Employment and population growth; Long-term forecasts;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
R1 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics
R41 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Transportation Systems - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion
L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Robert J. Barro & Paul Romer, 1993. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr93-1.
    Other versions:
    • Robert J. Barro & Paul M. Romer, 1991. "Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number barr91-1.
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