This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Does the PPP need the UIP?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Rodolfo Helg
Massimiliano Serati

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this paper we focus on the post Bretton Woods period and analyze whether a PPP relationship holds and what is the speed of adjustment to it. We adopt a multivariate system approach in which, initially, we test for cointegration and then we try to identify a cointegration space in which we have the PPP relationship (the "Johansen approach"). The studies that have adopted this approach have always rejected the PPP in favour of a long run relationship between the real exchange rate and the interest rate differential. On the contrary, our conclusions are in favour of the PPP for all the cases considered when we allow for a structural break in the data. We arrive to this conclusion, after having identified the cointegration space in two different ways: one in which we have the PPP as a cointegrated vector and one in which the real exchange rate plus the interest rate differential is a cointegrated vector. Adopting a dominance criterion we choose the former identification. We al so address the Rogoff's (1996) puzzle on the excess volatility of real exchange rate and the slow convergence to PPP. On the basis of persistence profiles obtained from a constrained VECM, we don't find any evidence in favour of the puzzle since we estimate a relatively fast speed of adjustment.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: ftp://ftp.igier.uni-bocconi.it/wp/1996/97.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no
File URL: ftp://ftp.igier.uni-bocconi.it/wp/1996/97.zip
File Format: application/postscript
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 97.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:97

Contact details of provider:
Postal: via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano (Italy)
Phone: 0039-02-58363301
Fax: 0039-02-58363302
Web page: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/en/papers/index.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Melissa Fiorucci).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gregory, Allan W, 1994. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 347-60, July.
    Other versions:
  2. Lee, Kevin C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1993. "Persistence profiles and business cycle fluctuations in a disaggregated model of U.K. output growth," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 293-322, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Edison, Hali J & Klovland, Jan Tore, 1987. "A Quantitative Reassessment of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence from Norway and the United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 309-33, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hali J. Edison & Joseph E. Gagnon & William R. Melick, 1994. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," International Finance Discussion Papers 465, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Shang-Jin Wei & David C. Parsley, 1995. "Purchasing Power Disparity During the Floating Rate Period: Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade Barriers and Other Culprits," NBER Working Papers 5032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 1672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Taylor, Mark P, 1988. "An Empirical Examination of Long-run Purchasing Power Parity Using Cointegration Techniques," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 1369-81, October.
  10. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Charles Engel & Michael K. Hendrickson & John H. Rogers, 1997. "Intra-national, intra-continental, and intra-planetary PPP," International Finance Discussion Papers 589, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Pittis, Nikitas, 2001. "Testing for PPP and UIP in an FIML framework: Some evidence for Germany and Japan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 637-650, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi, 1994. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: How Important are Nominal Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-80, July.
  16. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Phillips, P C B, 1991. "Optimal Inference in Cointegrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 283-306, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-89, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Jorion, Philippe & Sweeney, Richard J., 1996. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates: evidence and implications for forecasting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 535-550, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
    Other versions:
  24. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
    Other versions:
  25. Prakash Apte & Piet Sercu & Raman Uppal, 1996. "The Equilibrium Approach to Exchange Rates: Theory and Tests," NBER Working Papers 5748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Haug, Alfred A., 1996. "Tests for cointegration a Monte Carlo comparison," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 89-115. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-12, January.
  29. Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1997. "Accounting for real and nominal exchange rate movements in the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 233-254, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  32. Pollak, Robert A. & Wales, Terence J., 1991. "The likelihood dominance criterion : A new approach to model selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 227-242, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  33. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hung-Gay Fung & Kon S. Lai & Wai-Chung Lo, 1995. "Purchasing power parity under the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-189, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? LogEc provides statistical analysis about downloads from this service (and others).

This page was last updated on 2009-11-23.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.