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Dynamic models for policy evaluation

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Author Info
Costas Meghir () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London)

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Abstract

The evaluation of interventions has become a commonly used policy tool, which is frequently adopted to improve the transparency and effectiveness of public policy. However, evaluation methods based on comparing treatment and control groups in small scale trials are not capable of providing a complete picture of the likely effects of a policy and do not provide a framework which allows issues relating to the design of the programme to be addressed. The longer term effects relate to decisions by individuals to change aspects of their life-cycle behavior not directly targeted by the intervention, so as to best take into account of its presence. They also relate to possible changes in prices that may change or even reverse the incentives designed by the programme. In this paper we show how experimental data from field trials can be used to enhance the evaluation of interventions and we also illustrate the potential importance of allowing for longer term incentive and General Equilibrium effects.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series IFS Working Papers with number W06/08.

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Length: 42 pp.
Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:06/08

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1993. "Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(3), pages 631-49, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Blundell, Richard & Browning, Martin & Meghir, Costas, 1994. "Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Gianluca Violante & Giovanni Gallipoli & Costas Meghir, 2005. "Education Decisions, Equilibrium Policies and Wages Dispersion," 2005 Meeting Papers 522, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Richard Blundell & Ian Preston, 1998. "Consumption Inequality And Income Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(2), pages 603-640, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. César Alonso-Borrego & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & José E. Galdón-Sánchez, 2004. "Evaluating Labor Market Reforms: A General Equilibrium Approach," Economics Working Papers we042307, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2004. "Income Variance Dynamics and Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 1-32, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. James Heckman & Lance Lochner & Ricardo Cossa, 2002. "Learning-By-Doing Vs. On-the-Job Training: Using Variation Induced by the EITC to Distinguish Between Models of Skill Formation," NBER Working Papers 9083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. MaCurdy, Thomas E, 1981. "An Empirical Model of Labor Supply in a Life-Cycle Setting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1059-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Adda, Jerome & Dustmann, Christian & Meghir, Costas & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2007. "Career Progression and Formal versus On-the-Job Training," CEPR Discussion Papers 6087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Heckman, James J & Sedlacek, Guilherme, 1985. "Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and Market Wage Functions: An Empirical Model of Self-selection in the Labor Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1077-1125, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Lorraine Dearden & Carl Emmerson & Christine Frayne & Costas Meghir, 2005. "Education subsidies and school drop-out rates," IFS Working Papers W05/11, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1989. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 411-45, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli, 2006. "Education and Crime over the Life Cycle," 2006 Meeting Papers 136, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. James J. Heckman & Lance Lochner & Christopher Taber, 1998. "Explaining Rising Wage Inequality: Explorations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Labor Earnings with Heterogeneous Agents," NBER Working Papers 6384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Ian Preston, 2004. "Consumption inequality and partial insurance," IFS Working Papers W04/28, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  20. David Card & Dean R. Hyslop, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of a Time-Limited Earnings Subsidy for Welfare-Leavers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(6), pages 1723-1770, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cahuc, Pierre & Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2008. "Labor Market Policy Evaluation in Equilibrium: Some Lessons of the Job Search and Matching Model," IZA Discussion Papers 3687, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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