An assessment of PenSim2
AbstractThe Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)’s Pensim2 model is a dynamic microsimulation model. The principal purpose of this model is to estimate the future distribution of pensioner incomes, thus enabling analysis of the distributional effects of proposed changes to pension policy. This paper presents the results of an assessment of Pensim2 by researchers at the IFS. We start by looking at the overall structure of the model, and how it compares with other dynamic policy analysis models across the world. We make recommendations at this stage as to how the overall modelling strategy could be improved. We then go on to analyse the characteristics of most of the individual modules which make up Pensim2, examining the data used and the regression and predictions used in each step. The results from this examination are used to formulate a set of short and medium-term recommendations for developing and improving the model. Finally, we look at what might become possible for the model over a much longer time frame – looking towards developing a ‘Pensim3’ model over the next decade or so.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Fiscal Studies in its series IFS Working Papers with number W04/21.
Length: 51 pp.
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE
Phone: (+44) 020 7291 4800
Fax: (+44) 020 7323 4780
Web page: http://www.ifs.org.uk
More information through EDIRC
Postal: The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-03-13 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2005-03-13 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-PBE-2005-03-13 (Public Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eric French, 2004.
"The Effects of Health, Wealth and Wages on Labor Supply and Retirement Behavior,"
2004 Meeting Papers
96, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
- Eric French, 2000. "The effects of health, wealth, and wages on labor supply and retirement behavior," Working Paper Series WP-00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Goldberger, A.S., 1989.
"Economic And Mechanical Models Of Intergenerational Transmission,"
374, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Goldberger, Arthur S, 1989. "Economic and Mechanical Models of Intergenerational Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 504-13, June.
- Richard Disney & Carl Emmerson & Matthew Wakefield, 2003.
"Ill health and retirement in Britain: a panel data based analysis,"
IFS Working Papers
W03/02, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Disney, Richard & Emmerson, Carl & Wakefield, Matthew, 2006. "Ill health and retirement in Britain: A panel data-based analysis," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 621-649, July.
- Richard Blundell & Stephen Bond, 2000.
"GMM Estimation with persistent panel data: an application to production functions,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 321-340.
- Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1999. "GMM estimation with persistent panel data: an application to production functions," IFS Working Papers W99/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Amemiya, Takeshi, 1978. "On a two-step estimation of a multivariate logit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 13-21, August.
- Gary S. Becker & Nigel Tomes, .
"Human Capital and the Rise and Fall of Families,"
University of Chicago - Population Research Center
84-10, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- Becker, Gary S & Tomes, Nigel, 1986. "Human Capital and the Rise and Fall of Families," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(3), pages S1-39, July.
- Gary S. Becker & Nigel Tomes, 1994. "Human Capital and the Rise and Fall of Families," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 257-298 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1997.
"How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets,"
Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 781-832, July.
- Rust, J., 1994. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Working papers 9430, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1994. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Public Economics 9406005, EconWPA, revised 06 Jul 1994.
- Richard Blundell & Costas Meghir & Sarah Smith, 2002. "Pension Incentives and the Pattern of Early Retirement," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages C153-C170, March.
- Boland, Lawrence A, 1981. "On the Futility of Criticizing the Neoclassical Maximization Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1031-36, December.
- Donna B. Gilleskie & David M. Blau, 2006.
"Health insurance and retirement of married couples,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 935-953.
- David M, Blau & Donna B, Gilleskie, 2003. "Health Insurance and Retirement of Married Couples," Working Papers 2003-41, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Caldwell, Bruce J, 1983. "The Neoclassical Maximization Hypothesis: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 824-27, September.
- Blundell, R. & Browning, M. & Meghir, C., 1989. "A Microeconometric Model Of Intertemporal Substitution And Consumer Demand," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 324, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Aaron George Grech, 2013.
"How best to measure pension adequacy,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
51270, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Li, Jinjing & O'Donoghue, Cathal, 2012. "A methodological survey of dynamic microsimulation models," MERIT Working Papers 002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- Emanuele Ciani & Marcello Morciano, 2011.
"Estimation and Simulation of Earnings in IT-SILC,"
Department of Economics
0660, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Jinjing Li & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2012. "Simulating Histories within Dynamic Microsimulation Models," International Journal of Microsimulation, Interational Microsimulation Association, vol. 5(1), pages 52-76.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stephanie Seavers).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.