Has Price Responsiveness of U.S. Milk Supply Decreased?
AbstractThis study has three main objectives: (i) to quantify the impacts of milk and feed price changes on the primary milk supply in the U.S.; (ii) to examine the impacts of technological changes on the price responsiveness of supply and specific herd characteristics; and (iii) to generate dynamic long-run forecasts of the milk supply response to price changes and possible future technological advancements. The econometric analysis contained in this study is an update of the model by Chavas and Klemme (1986). We used the residual-based bootstrap to test hypotheses regarding the long-run price-responsiveness of supply, and found that the 10-year elasticity of milk supply to milk price is lower in 2007 than it was in 1980. This result is most surprising. One might expect that with better genetics, improved heifer management and larger farms the industry would be likely to react to prices more quickly than almost thirty years ago, when small and medium-sized dairy operations played a major role. A detailed analysis of the predicted herd structure supports the conjecture that a decrease in price responsiveness is a consequence of decades-long excessive focus on yield improvement in genetic selection. The intensive production process could make cows susceptible to health problems, imposing biological constraints on the economic lifetime of a cow. Hence, herd expansion decisions will be harder to implement, as culling rates are not easily reduced, and more replacement heifers are needed just to keep the herd size stable.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The Institute of Economics, Zagreb in its series Working Papers with number 0902.
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
milk supply; long-run elasticities;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, David R. & Boisvert, Richard N., 1985. "Factors Affecting Participation In The Milk Diversion Program In The U.S. And New York," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 14(2), October.
- Jeffrey T. LaFrance & Harry D. Gorter, 1985. "Regulation in a Dynamic Market: The U.S. Dairy Industry," Monash Economics Working Papers archive-34, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Blayney, Donald P. & Gehlhar, Mark J. & Bolling, H. Christine & Jones, Keithly G. & Langley, Suchada V. & Normile, Mary Anne & Somwaru, Agapi, 2006. "U.S. Dairy at a Global Crossroads," Economic Research Report 7209, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- J.-P. Chavas & A. F. Kraus, 1990. "Population Dynamics And Milk Supply Response In The Us Lake States," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 75-84.
- Thraen, Cameron S. & Hammond, Jerome W., 1987. "Price Enhancement, Returns Variability, And Supply Response In The U.S. Dairy Sector," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(02), December.
- John D. Schmitz, 1997. "Dynamics of Beef Cow Herd Size: An Inventory Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 532-542.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Doris Banicevic).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.