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Sequential city growth in the US: does age matter?

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  • María Sánchez-Vidal

    ()
    (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB)

  • Rafael González-Val

    ()
    (Universidad de Zaragoza & IEB)

  • Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal

    ()
    (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB)

Abstract

We provide empirical evidence of the dynamics of city size distribution for the whole of the twentieth century in U.S. cities and metropolitan areas. We focus our analysis on the new cities that were created during the period of analysis. The main contribution of this paper, therefore, is the parametric and nonparametric analysis of the population growth experienced by these new-born cities. Our results enable us to confirm that, when cities appear, they grow very rapidly and, as the decades pass, their growth slows or even falls into decline. This is consistent with the theoretical framework regarding mean reversion (convergence) in the steady state and with the theories of sequential city growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB) in its series Working Papers with number 2013/1.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:2013/6/doc2013-1

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Keywords: Cities; sequential city growth; city size distribution;

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References

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  1. Maarten Bosker & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2006. "A Century of Shocks: The Evolution of the German City Size Distribution 1925 – 1999," CESifo Working Paper Series 1728, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Henry G. Overman & Yannis Ioannides, 2000. "Zipf's law for cities: an empirical examination," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library 20136, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Kris James Mitchener & Ian W. McLean, 2001. "The Productivity of U.S. States Since 1880," School of Economics Working Papers, University of Adelaide, School of Economics 2001-08, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  4. Linda Harris Dobkins & Yannis M. Ioannides, 1999. "Spatial Interactions Among U.S. Cities: 1900-1990," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9913, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  5. Sukkoo Kim & Robert A. Margo, 2003. "Historical Perspectives on U.S. Economic Geography," NBER Working Papers 9594, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Edward L Glaeser & Jesse M Shapiro, 2003. "Urban Growth in the 1990s: Is City Living Back?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 139-165.
  7. Cuberes David, 2009. "A Model of Sequential City Growth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-41, May.
  8. Südekum, Jens & Giesen, Kristian, 2013. "City Age and City Size," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association 79996, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  9. Jordan Rappaport, 2003. "Moving to nice weather," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 03-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  11. Jan Eeckhout, 2004. "Gibrat's Law for (All) Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1429-1451, December.
  12. Vernon Henderson & Anthony Venables, 2009. "Dynamics of city formation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 233-254, April.
  13. Giesen, Kristian & Suedekum, Jens, 2009. "Zipf's Law for Cities in the Regions and the Country," IZA Discussion Papers 3928, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Hoyt Bleakley & Jeffrey Lin, 2011. "Portage and path dependence," Working Papers 11-38, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  15. David Cuberes, 2010. "Sequential city growth: empirical evidence," Working Papers. Serie AD, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) 2010-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  16. Duncan Black & Vernon Henderson, 2003. "Urban evolution in the USA," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 343-372, October.
  17. Michaels, Guy & Rauch, Ferdinand & Redding, Stephen J, 2008. "Urbanization and Structural Transformation," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 7016, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Jordan Rappaport & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 2001. "The U.S. as a coastal nation," Research Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 01-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  21. Xavier Gabaix, 1999. "Zipf'S Law For Cities: An Explanation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 114(3), pages 739-767, August.
  22. Giesen, Kristian & Zimmermann, Arndt & Suedekum, Jens, 2010. "The size distribution across all cities - Double Pareto lognormal strikes," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 129-137, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Kristian Giesen & Jens Suedekum, 2012. "The Size Distribution across all "Cities": A Unifying Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3730, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Giesen, Kristian & Suedekum, Jens, 2013. "City age and city size," DICE Discussion Papers, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) 120, Heinrich‐Heine‐Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).

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