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Breaking Credibility in Monetary Policy: The Role of Politics in the Stability of the Central Banker

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Miguel Rueda
Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between the hazard rate of the exit of a president of a central bank and a measure of credibility in monetary policy. The expected hazard rate of exit is estimated as a function of legal and political variables. The measure of credibility is the expected probability of a disinflation beginning when inflation is rising. For a sample of 22 Latin American and G7 countries, I find a negative relationship between the hazard rate of exit and the measure of credibility. This provides evidence of the expected relationship between independence and credibility not found in previous cross country studies. Using the executive’s party ideology as a measure of aversion to inflation, there was no evidence that this relationship is different for countries where the government is identified as more conservative. However, when a president of the central bank appointed by a conservative government is in office, a rise in the probability of a disinflation beginning when inflation was rising was found. The results show that legal independence after controlling for the hazard rate of the president’s exit is not associated with credibility gains.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4585.

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Date of creation: Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4585

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  2. A. Javier Hamann & Alessandro Prati, 2003. "Why Do Many Disinflations Fail? The Importance of Luck, Timing, and Political Institutions," IMF Working Papers 02/228, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Axel Dreher & Jakob de Haan & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2006. "When Is a Central Bank Governor Fired? Evidence Based on a New Data Set," Working papers 06-143, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Helge Berger & Ulrich Woitek, . "Does Conservatism Matter? A Time Series Approach to Central Banking," Working Papers 9814, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised May 1999. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
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  20. Jean-Francois Segalotto & Marco Arnone & Bernard Laurens, 2006. "Measures of Central Bank Autonomy: Empirical Evidence for OECD, Developing, and Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/228, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1985. "Inflation and Reputation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 530-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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