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On Emerging Economy Sovereign Spreads and Ratings

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  • Andrew Powell
  • Juan F. Martinez S.

Abstract

This paper analyzes alternative models for emerging sovereign ratings. Although a small number of economic fundamentals explain ratings reasonably well, variations in those economic fundamentals are themselves explained by a small number of world factors. On the other hand, global financial variables associated with risk aversion are additionally required in order to explain the significant spread compression at the end of 2006. To determine whether ratings matter for spreads, the paper compares results across different methodologies, in particular exploiting differences in opinion between rating agencies. The evidence from this and previous methodologies is that ratings do matter. Finally, the paper finds that global indicators of risk aversion have become less important for emerging market spreads and that the effect of sub-prime news is less than the effect of “average news” on emerging economy credit default swap (CDS) spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Powell & Juan F. Martinez S., 2008. "On Emerging Economy Sovereign Spreads and Ratings," Research Department Publications 4565, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4565
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    7. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Luis-Fernando Mejía & Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    9. Martín González‐Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
    10. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Mignon, Valérie & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011. "The effects of the subprime crisis on the Latin American financial markets: An empirical assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2342-2357, September.
    2. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Gex, Mathieu & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 481-497.
    3. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
    4. Hassan, M. Kabir & Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2015. "Credit default swaps and sovereign debt markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 240-252.
    5. Erdal Özmen & Özge Doğanay Yaşar, 2015. "Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spreads, Credit Ratings and Global Financial Crisis," ERC Working Papers 1510, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2015.
    6. Dimitrios Tsomocos & Juan Francisco Martinez Sepulveda, 2012. "Liquidity effects on asset prices, financial stability and economic resilience," 2012 Meeting Papers 916, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Hakimzadi Wagan, 2014. "Are emerging markets exposed to contagion from U.S.: Evidence from stock and sovereign bond markets," Working Papers 2014-58, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-058 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Edgardo Cayón, 2014. "The Effects of Contagion During the Global Financial Crisis in Government-Regulated and Sponsored Assets in Emerging Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2014.
    10. Dedu, Vasile & Mihai, Irina & Neagu, Florian, 2010. "Trends of the Contagion Risk in Sovereign Spreads for Emerging European Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 265-279, July.
    11. Powell, Andrew & Panizza, Ugo & Caballero, Julián, 2015. "The second wave of global liquidity: Why are firms acting like financial intermediaries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:201417 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Thomas Url, 2012. "Rating Agencies: Creating, Amplifying or Drawn by Events in the Sovereign Debt Crisis?," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 17(2), pages 108-121, May.
    14. Juan Francisco Martinez & Daniel Oda, 2019. "Índice de sincronía bancaria y ciclos financieros," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 841, Central Bank of Chile.
    15. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Pedro del Río, 2012. "Boom-bust cycles, imbalances and discipline in Europe," Working Papers 1220, Banco de España.
    16. Mr. Alfredo Cuevas & Ms. Maria Gonzalez & Arnoldo López-Marmolejo & Davide Lombardo, 2008. "Pension Privatization and Country Risk," IMF Working Papers 2008/195, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Thomas Url, 2011. "Ratingagenturen: Verursacher, Verstärker oder im Sog der Staatsschuldenkrise?," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 84(12), pages 811-825, December.
    18. Edgardo Cayón, 2014. "The Effects of Contagion During the Global Financial Crisis in Government-Regulated and Sponsored Assets in Emerging Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 30, July-Dece.

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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