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On Emerging Economy Sovereign Spreads and Ratings

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  • Andrew Powell
  • Juan F. Martinez S.

Abstract

This paper analyzes alternative models for emerging sovereign ratings. Although a small number of economic fundamentals explain ratings reasonably well, variations in those economic fundamentals are themselves explained by a small number of world factors. On the other hand, global financial variables associated with risk aversion are additionally required in order to explain the significant spread compression at the end of 2006. To determine whether ratings matter for spreads, the paper compares results across different methodologies, in particular exploiting differences in opinion between rating agencies. The evidence from this and previous methodologies is that ratings do matter. Finally, the paper finds that global indicators of risk aversion have become less important for emerging market spreads and that the effect of sub-prime news is less than the effect of “average news” on emerging economy credit default swap (CDS) spreads.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4565.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4565

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References

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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-134 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," Textos para discussão 484, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  3. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo, 2003. "On the determinants of Original Sin: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 957-990, December.
  5. Kevin Cowan & Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Ugo Panizza & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Sovereign Debt in the Americas: New Data and Stylized Facts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 371, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Guillermo Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  7. Afonso, António & Gomes, Pedro & Rother, Philipp, 2007. "What “hides” behind sovereign debt ratings?," Working Paper Series 0711, European Central Bank.
  8. Anastasia Guscina & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 06/98, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
  11. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dedu, Vasile & Mihai, Irina & Neagu, Florian, 2010. "Trends of the Contagion Risk in Sovereign Spreads for Emerging European Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 265-279, July.
  2. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Pedro del Río, 2012. "Boom-bust cycles, imbalances and discipline in Europe," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1220, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Gilles Dufrénot & Valérie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2011. "The Effects of the Subprime Crisis on the Latin American Financial Markets: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers halshs-00587460, HAL.
  4. Alfredo Cuevas & Maria Gonzalez & Arnoldo López-Marmolejo & Davide Lombardo, 2008. "Pension Privatization and Country Risk," IMF Working Papers 08/195, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Hakimzadi Wagan, 2014. "Are emerging markets exposed to contagion from U.S.: Evidence from stock and sovereign bond markets," Working Papers 2014-058, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  6. repec:ipg:wpaper:201417 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Delatte, Anne-Laure & Gex, Mathieu & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 481-497.
  8. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.

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