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Temor y falla de mercados: Desequilibrios mundiales y “aseguramiento propio

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Author Info
Marcus Miller
Lei Zhang

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Abstract

Este trabajo propone un marco integrado para analizar conjuntamente dos aspectos claves: el surgimiento de desequilibrios mundiales y la motivación preventiva de la acumulación de reservas. Los modelos estándar de equilibrio general pueden anticipar superávits reducidos de la cuenta corriente en mercados emergentes si éstos encaran un mayor nivel de riesgo que EE. UU. Pero con una pronunciada aversión a las pérdidas en los mercados emergentes, los ahorros motivados por la precaución pueden generar “desequilibrios mundiales” considerables, especialmente si no hay suficiente capacidad mundial de “aseguramiento”. En principio, tasas de interés real más bajas permiten asegurar que la demanda agregada iguale la oferta a nivel mundial. Aunque la abundancia excesiva de ahorros preventivos parece ser de naturaleza temporal, una corrección provocada por una “parada repentina” de los movimientos de capitales hacia EE. UU. podría conducir a un “aterrizaje accidentado”.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 4499.

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Date of creation: Dec 2007
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4499

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