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A Decade of Reform in Latin America: Has it Delivered Lower Volatility?

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  • Michael Gavin
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    Abstract

    Have the economies of Latin America become less volatile as a result of the economic stabilization and structural reforms implemented during the past decade? The answer is a qualified “yes. ” The reforms have helped, but more needs to be done to ensure the macroeconomic stability required for accelerated and more equitable long-run growth in the region. Structural reforms have helped reduce volatility, but volatility remains high by international standards and has not declined in all countries. The paper offers a policy agenda, raising questions for discussion in four key areas: (i) How can fiscal management be made more stabilizing? (ii) How can management of domestic financial markets contribute to lower economic volatility? (iii) How should capital flows be managed? (iv) What is the role of the exchange rate regime?

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4076.

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    Date of creation: Jun 1997
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    Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4076

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    1. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
    3. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Jürgen Von Hagen, 1999. "Reforming Budgetary Institutions in Latin America: The Case for a National Fiscal Council," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 415-442, October.
    5. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "External Debt and Macroeconomic Performance in Latin America and East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 523-573.
    6. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    7. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1991. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 3848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance, entrepreneurship and growth: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 513-542, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Paulo A. Medas & Daria Zakharova, 2009. "A Primeron Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/56, International Monetary Fund.

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