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Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and “Self-Insurance”

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Author Info
Marcus Miller () (University of Warwick and Centre for Economic Policy Research)
Lei Zhang (University of Warwick)

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Abstract

This paper proposes an integrated framework to analyze jointly two key issues: the emergence of global imbalances and the precautionary motive for accumulating reserves. Standard models of general equilibrium would predict modest current account surpluses in the emerging markets if they face higher risk than the US itself. But, with pronounced Loss Aversion in emerging markets, their precautionary savings can generate substantial “global imbalances,” especially if there is an inefficient supply of global “insurance.” In principle, lower real interest rates will ensure that aggregate demand equals supply at a global level (though the required real interest may be negative). While a precautionary savings glut appears to be a temporary phenomenon, a process of correction triggered by a “Sudden Stop” in capital flows to the United States might lead to a “hard landing.”

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 1076.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:1076

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Related research
Keywords: stochastic dynamic general equilibrium loss aversion liquidity trap

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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  2. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313. [Downloadable!]
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  5. David Backus & Bryan Routledge & Stanley Zin, 2004. "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists," Working Papers 04-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. P. Dubey & J. Geanakoplos & M . Shubik, . "Default and Punishment in General Equilibrium," Department of Economics Working Papers 01-07, SUNY-Stony Brook, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Stephany Griffith-Jones & Krishnan Sharma, 2006. "GDP-Indexed Bonds: Making It Happen," Working Papers 21, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs. [Downloadable!]
  8. Philip R. Lane & G Milesi-Feretti, 2004. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0662, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Jaewoo Lee & Joshua Aizenman, 2005. "International Reserves: Precautionary vs. Mercantilist Views, Theory, and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 05/198, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Marcus Miller & Olli Castrén & Lei Zhang, 2005. "Capital flows and the US ‘New Economy’ - consumption smoothing and risk exposure," Working Paper Series 459, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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