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Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality

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Author Info
Eduardo Cavallo () (Inter-American Development Bank)
Jeffrey Frankel () (Harvard University)

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Abstract

Openness to trade is one factor that has been identified as determining whether a country is prone to sudden stops in capital inflows, crashes in currencies, or severe recessions. Some believe that openness raises vulnerability to foreign shocks, while others believe that it makes adjustment to crises less painful. Several authors have offered empirical evidence that having a large tradable sector reduces the contraction necessary to adjust to a given cut-off in funding. This would help explain lower vulnerability to crises in Asia than in Latin America. Such studies may, however, be subject to the problem that trade is endogenous. Using the gravity instrument for trade openness, which is constructed from geographical determinants of bilateral trade, this paper finds that openness indeed makes countries less vulnerable, both to severe sudden stops and currency crashes, and that the relationship is even stronger when correcting for the endogeneity of trade.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 1063.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:1063

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Related research
Keywords: Sudden Stops Current Account Adjustment Trade Gravity Model

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Carlos Arteta, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Dollarization: Does Flexibility Reduce Bank Currency Mismatches?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1021, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2004. "Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness," NBER Working Papers 10496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Alberto Alesina & Alexander Wagner, 2003. "Choosing (And Reneging On) Exchange Rate Regimes," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2008, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2003. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate, and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," NBER Working Papers 9828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher Gust & Jorge Roldos, 2002. "Monetary policy in a financial crisis," Working Paper 0204, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Joshua Aizenman, 2003. "On the Hidden Links Between Financial and Trade Opening," NBER Working Papers 9906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Carlos O. Arteta, 2002. "Exchange rate regimes and financial dollarization: does flexibility reduce bank currency mismatches?," International Finance Discussion Papers 738, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Excessive Dollar Debt: Financial Development and Underinsurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 867-894, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Fabrizio Perri & Michele Cavallo & Kate Kisselev & Nouriel Roubini, 2004. "Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones & Eswar Prasad, 2004. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2004. "Does Openness to Trade Make Countries More Vulnerable to Sudden Stops, Or Less? Using Gravity to Establish Causality," NBER Working Papers 10957, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Carlos O. Arteta, 2003. "Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?," International Finance Discussion Papers 763, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  24. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 10277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. Rudger Dornbusch & Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1995. "Currency Crises and Collapses," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1995-2), pages 219-294. [Downloadable!]
  26. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2002. "IS-LM-BP in the Pampas," NBER Working Papers 9337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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