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Policy Volatility and Growth

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Author Info
Alberto Chong () (Inter-American Development Bank)
Mark Gradstein () (Ben Gurion University/CEPR/CESifo/IZA)

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Abstract

A growing body of recent macroeconomic evidence suggests that volatility is detrimental to economic growth. The channels through which volatility affects growth, however, are less clear; substantive evidence based on disaggregate data is almost non-existent. This paper offers a framework in which policy volatility has an adverse effect on firms' entry into productive industries, thereby affecting economic growth. Empirical support for this relationship is based on a detailed dataset of thousands of firms from some 80 countries. Additional evidence is provided on the channels through which volatility affects firm growth, showing that institutional obstacles magnify the effect.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 1056.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:1056

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Related research
Keywords: International Firm Growth Policy Volatility Institutions Finance

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. " Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-86, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Roger H. Gordon & Julie Berry Cullen, 2002. "Taxes and Entrepreneurial Activity: Theory and Evidence for the U.S," NBER Working Papers 9015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. repec:rus:hseeco:72137 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Simeon Djankov & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-De-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "The Regulation Of Entry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(1), pages 1-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Simon Johnson & John McMillan & Christopher Woodruff, 2002. "Property Rights and Finance," NBER Working Papers 8852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Witold Jerzy Henisz, 2004. "Political Institutions and Policy Volatility," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Vojislav Maksimovic, 2005. "Financial and Legal Constraints to Growth: Does Firm Size Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 137-177, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Jonathan A. Parker, 2006. "Taxes and Growth in a Financially Underdeveloped Country: Evidence from the Chilean Investment Boom," NBER Working Papers 12104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Cristian Pop-Eleches & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Judicial Checks and Balances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 445-470, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Lee, Young & Gordon, Roger H., 2005. "Tax structure and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 1027-1043, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Loayza, Norman, 2004. "Volatility and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3184, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  18. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 2007. "Aid Volatility and Poverty Traps," NBER Working Papers 13400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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