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The Determinants of Corporate Risk in Emerging Markets: An Option-Adjusted Spread Analysis

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Author Info
Eduardo Cavallo () (Inter-American Development Bank)
Patricio Valenzuela () (International Monetary Fund)

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Abstract

This study explores the determinants of corporate bond spreads in emerging markets economies. Using a largely unexploited dataset, the paper finds that corporate bond spreads are determined by firm-specific variables, bond characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sovereign risk, and global factors. A variance decomposition analysis shows that firm-level characteristics account for the larger share of the variance. In addition, the paper finds two asymmetries. The first is in line the sovereign ceiling “lite” hypothesis which states that the transfer of risk from the sovereign to the private sector is less than 1 to 1. The second is consistent with the popular notion that panics are common in emerging markets where investors are less informed and more prone to herding.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series RES Working Papers with number 1032.

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Length: 29
Date of creation: Apr 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:1032

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Related research
Keywords: Corporate Bond Spreads Sovereign Ceiling Default Risk Emerging Market

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Durbin, Erik & Ng, David, 2005. "The sovereign ceiling and emerging market corporate bond spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 631-649, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2005. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," NBER Working Papers 11280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kevin Cowan & Patricio Valenzuela & Eduardo Borensztein, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings "Lite"? the Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/75, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Marcel Peter & Martín Grandes, 2005. "How Important Is Sovereign Risk in Determining Corporate Default Premia? The Case of South Africa," IMF Working Papers 05/217, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2008-9-21.


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