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La competitividad de Ecuador en la era de la dolarización: diagnóstico y propuestas

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  • Alberto Melo
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    Abstract

    El presente trabajo tiene dos objetivos: formular un diagnóstico de la situación de competitividad de la economía ecuatoriana, y presentar una propuesta acerca de las áreas prioritarias en las que debe concentrarse la política pública en el próximo quinquenio (2003-2008) para elevar el grado de competitividad de las empresas del país. La competitividad del país se enfrenta con retos de largo y corto plazo. Los de largo plazo son tres: i) la posible sobredependencia de las exportaciones petroleras y la consiguiente pérdida de competitividad para los productos no petroleros; ii) que el marco institucional del régimen monetario de la dolarización esté todavía incompleto y que el sistema financiero quede vulnerable al patrón clásico de euforia financiera seguida de pánico, crisis financiera y colapso del sistema financiero; iii) que haya un escalamiento --o agravamiento-- de la inestabilidad política del tipo que pueda dar origen a un empeoramiento sustancial y permanente del clima de confianza para la inversión productiva. También existen dos retos graves que requieren atención más urgente: i) la inestabilidad jurídica, factor que mina la confianza de los inversionistas nacionales y extranjeros; y ii) La ausencia de una infraestructura física productiva suficiente y operada de una manera eficiente. Con base en estas conclusiones, la agenda de temas cruciales para que Ecuador eleve su competitividad contiene las siguientes tareas prioritarias: i) reducir la inestabilidad política; ii) eliminar la inestabilidad jurídica que erosiona el clima de inversión; iii) hacer un esfuerzo de transformación estructural de la economía que haga posible reducir los efectos de la enfermedad holandesa; iv) completar el marco institucional de la dolarización por medio de la creación de una institucionalidad de política fiscal favorable a la disciplina fiscal y del desarrollo de las instituciones que promuevan y protejan la estabilidad del sistema financiero; y v) mejorar la infraestructura física productiva.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 1000.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:1000

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    1. Michael Kremer & Eric Maskin, 1996. "Wage Inequality and Segregation by Skill," NBER Working Papers 5718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Behrman, Jere R & Taubman, Paul, 1990. "The Intergenerational Correlation between Children's Adult Earnings and Their Parents' Income: Result from the Michigan Panel Survey of Income Dynamics," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 36(2), pages 115-27, June.
    3. McCleary, Rachel & Barro, Robert, 2002. "Religion and Political Economy in an International Panel," Scholarly Articles 3221170, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Jere R. Behrman & Alejandro Gaviria & Miguel Székely, 2001. "Intergenerational Mobility in Latin America," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
    5. Michael Kremer & Eric Maskin, 1996. "Wage Inequality and Segregation," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1777, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Dahan, Momi & Gaviria, Alejandro, 2001. "Sibling Correlations and Intergenerational Mobility in Latin America," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(3), pages 537-54, April.
    7. Solon, Gary, 1992. "Intergenerational Income Mobility in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 393-408, June.
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