Exchange Rate and Inflation: France and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period
AbstractThe objective of this paper is twofold. First, to compare the model of financial stabilization in the interwar period in France (a country in the “core”) with that in Bulgaria (a peripheral country). Second, applying modern econometric techniques (VAR models) we would like to “test “whether the theory designating a dominant role of the exchange rate on inflation (in comparison to that of money in circulation) holds and can be empirically proved by the actual movement of the monetary variables and the direction of their causality. Going back to the history of stabilization in France and Bulgaria in the interwar period and studying it through the theoretical ideas at the beginning of the XX century would provide us not only with new elements in the analysis of the present-day problems of monetary stabilizations but also add to the arguments of the crucial significance of the exchange rate and monetary rules for the efficiency and credibility of the monetary regime.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ICER - International Centre for Economic Research in its series ICER Working Papers with number 34-2006.
Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
economic history; modeling; France; Bulgaria;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- B3 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
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- Kalina Dimitrova, 2010. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Bulgaria: Lessons from the Historical Record," ICER Working Papers 13-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Nikolay Nenovsky & Giovanni Pavanelli & Kalina Dimitrova, 2007. "Exchange Control in Italy and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period: History and Perspectives," ICER Working Papers 40-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Nikolay Nenovsky & Martin Ivanov & Gergana Mihaylova, 2008. "The Evolution of Bulgarian Banks' Efficiency During the Twenties: A Dea Approach," Working Papers 82, Bank of Greece.
- Kalina Dimitrova & Martin Ivanov & Ralitsa Simeonova-Ganeva, 2009. "Effective exchange rates of the Bulgarian Lev 1879-1939," ICER Working Papers 04-2009, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
- Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2013. "The emergence of a European region: Business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers 13/01, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
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