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Exchange Rate and Inflation: France and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, to compare the model of financial stabilization in the interwar period in France (a country in the “core”) with that in Bulgaria (a peripheral country). Second, applying modern econometric techniques (VAR models) we would like to “test “whether the theory designating a dominant role of the exchange rate on inflation (in comparison to that of money in circulation) holds and can be empirically proved by the actual movement of the monetary variables and the direction of their causality. Going back to the history of stabilization in France and Bulgaria in the interwar period and studying it through the theoretical ideas at the beginning of the XX century would provide us not only with new elements in the analysis of the present-day problems of monetary stabilizations but also add to the arguments of the crucial significance of the exchange rate and monetary rules for the efficiency and credibility of the monetary regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalina Dimitrova & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2006. "Exchange Rate and Inflation: France and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period," ICER Working Papers 34-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:icr:wpicer:34-2006
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    File URL: http://www.bemservizi.unito.it/repec/icr/wp2006/ICERwp34-06.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Raphaël Chiappini & Dominique Torre & Elise Tosi, 2019. "Romania's Unsustainable Stabilization: 1929-1933," GREDEG Working Papers 2019-43, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    2. K. Dimitrova & Nikolay Nenovsky & G. Pavanelli, 2007. "Exchange rate control in Italy and Bulgaria in the interwar period. History and Perspectives," Post-Print halshs-00259693, HAL.
    3. Nikolay Nenovsky & Pencho Penchev, 2018. "Between Enthusiasm and Skepticism: Bulgarian Economists and Europe (1878-1944)," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(1), pages 27-55.
    4. Nikolay Nenovsky & Martin Ivanov & Gergana Mihaylova, 2008. "The Evolution of Bulgarian Banks' Efficiency During the Twenties: A Dea Approach," Working Papers 82, Bank of Greece.
    5. Silviu Cornel Virgil CHIRIAC & Dimi OFILEANU, 2014. "The Analysis Of Investments In An Uncertain Environment," SEA - Practical Application of Science, Romanian Foundation for Business Intelligence, Editorial Department, issue 5, pages 203-208, November.
    6. Matthias Morys & Martin Ivanov, 2015. "The emergence of a European region: business cycles in South-East Europe from political independence to World War II," European Review of Economic History, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 382-411.
    7. Nikolay Nenovsky & Giovanni Pavanelli & Kalina Dimitrova, 2007. "Exchange Control in Italy and Bulgaria in the Interwar Period: History and Perspectives," ICER Working Papers 40-2007, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    8. Nikolay NENOVSKY, 2010. "Bulgarian Economists during The Great Depression," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 286, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    9. Matthias Morys, 2015. "Any lessons for today? Exchange-rate stabilisation in Greece and South-East Europe between economic and political objectives and fiscal reality, 1841-1939," Working Papers 0084, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    10. Kalina Dimitrova & Martin Ivanov & Ralitsa Simeonova-Ganeva, 2009. "Effective exchange rates of the Bulgarian Lev 1879-1939," ICER Working Papers 04-2009, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    11. Kalina Dimitrova, 2010. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Bulgaria: Lessons from the Historical Record," ICER Working Papers 13-2010, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic history; modeling; France; Bulgaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B3 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought: Individuals
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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