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Metamodels and Nonpoint Pollution Policy in Agriculture

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Informed debate on agricultural nonpoint pollution requires evaluation of regional water quality in relation to management practices. It is prohibitive, in terms of cost and time, to run the site-specific process models for regional policy analysis. Therefore, a simplified and robust technique--metamodeling--is suggested to evaluate regional water quality. Data from an experimentally designed simulation of complex surface water and groundwater process models, PRZM and STREAM, are used to develop statistically validated metamodels. The estimated metamodels were integrated with a regional agricultural economic decision making model to evaluate the surface water and groundwater loadings of 16 major corn and sorghum herbicides. Spatial probability distributions are derived for herbicide concentrations exceeding the toxicity-weighted benchmark from the EPA. We estimate that 1.2 percent of the regional soils will lead to groundwater detection of atrazine exceeding 0.12 ?/L, which compares well with the findings of the EPA's groundwater monitoring survey. We find no-till practices to significantly reduce the surface water concentration of atrazine and other herbicides with less impact on groundwater contamination suggesting indirect gains to soil conservation policies. But we also note that an atrazine ban could lead to increased soil erosion, even with the conservation compliance provisions fully incorporated.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University in its series Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications with number 92-wp97.

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Date of creation: Aug 1992
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Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:92-wp97

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Cited by:
  1. Leung, Brian & Finnoff, David & Shogren, Jason F. & Lodge, David, 2005. "Managing invasive species: Rules of thumb for rapid assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 24-36, October.
  2. Arik Sadeh, 2003. "Optimal Product Lifecycle and Partial Information with Active Learning," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 125-136, February.
  3. Aihoon, John Komo & Groenewald, Jan A. & von Bach, Helmke J. Sartorius, 1997. "Agricultural Salinization in the Olfants River at Loskop Valley, Mpumalanga," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 36(3), September.
  4. Archer, David W. & Shogren, Jason F., 2001. "Risk-indexed herbicide taxes to reduce ground and surface water pollution: an integrated ecological economics evaluation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 227-250, August.
  5. B. Croke & J. Ticehurst & R. Letcher & J. Norton & L. Newham & A. Jakeman, 2007. "Integrated assessment of water resources: Australian experiences," Water Resources Management, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 351-373, January.
  6. Kampas, Athanasios & White, Ben, 2003. "Probabilistic programming for nitrate pollution control: Comparing different probabilistic constraint approximations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 217-228, May.
  7. JunJie Wu & Bruce A. Babcock, 1996. "Spatial Heterogeneity and the Choice of Instruments to Control Nonpoint Pollution," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 96-wp164, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  8. Eli Feinerman & Meira Falkovitz, 1997. "Optimal Scheduling of Nitrogen Fertilization and Irrigation," Water Resources Management, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 101-117, April.
  9. Athanasios Kampas & Anna Vasilaki & Athanasios Petsakos & Angeliki Stefopoulou, 2013. "Irrigation Full Cost Assessment: The case of the Pinios Local Organization for Land Reclamation, Greece," Working Papers 2013-1, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
  10. Graham, Tennille, 2005. "On the Road to Better Management: An investigation into the benefits of managing the impacts of dryland salinity on roads," 2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia 137921, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  11. Galelli, S. & Gandolfi, C. & Soncini-Sessa, R. & Agostani, D., 2010. "Building a metamodel of an irrigation district distributed-parameter model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 187-200, February.
  12. Kampas, Athanasios, 2001. "Identifying Common Fallacies in the Choice of Environmental Taxes for Agricultural Pollution Control: The Absence of Transaction Costs and the Normality of Agricultural Pollutants," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(2), August.
  13. Swinton, Scott M. & Black, J. Roy, 2000. "Modeling Of Agricultural Systems," Staff Papers 11581, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.

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