IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ias/cpaper/16-wp564.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Role of Ethanol Plants in Dakotas Land Use Change: Incorporating Flexible Trends in the Difference-in-Difference Framework with Remotely-Sensed Data

Author

Abstract

The focus of this study is the Dakotas' recent land use transitions from grass to corn and soybean cultivation. Recent literature has extensively characterized these land use changes and related concerns. However, formal analyses to understand the factors underlying these conversions are lacking. We study the role of Dakotas' ethanol plants in these land use changes. We construct a spatially delineated dataset and implement a Difference-in-Difference (DID) model in conjunction with Propensity Score Matching to estimate the impact of a corn-based ethanol plant on nearby corn-acres. We hold the advent of an ethanol plant to be the treatment and estimate the treatment effects for each ethanol plant based on the parallel paths assumption that is standard for the DID methods. We find that effects vary by ethanol plants and so we view as inappropriate the single point estimates for all ethanol plants in a region that are usually provided in the literature. Surprisingly, we find insignificant positive, and significant but negative ethanol plant impacts on local corn-acres. Negative estimates are hard to reconcile with the economic incentives due to ethanol plants. We also find intensified corn production and reduced corn-soy rotations due to the ethanol plants. Furthermore, based on placebo tests and pre-treatment trends in corn acres, we find that the identifying parallel paths assumption of the standard DID model does not hold. We incorporate differentiated trends into the DID framework through more flexible assumptions. To validate the flexible assumptions due to differentiated trends, we implement a spatial placebo and find that estimating identified localized treatment effects in this study is challenging. The estimated treatment effects are identified for only two out of the four ethanol plants in North Dakota. The identified treatment effects on local corn acreage are found to be positive for one plant and negative for the other. In light of economic incentives provided by the establishment of an ethanol plant, the negative treatment effect is puzzling.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaurav Arora & Peter T. Wolter & Hongli Feng & David A. Hennessy, 2016. "Role of Ethanol Plants in Dakotas Land Use Change: Incorporating Flexible Trends in the Difference-in-Difference Framework with Remotely-Sensed Data," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp564, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:16-wp564
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.card.iastate.edu/products/publications/pdf/16wp564.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.card.iastate.edu/products/publications/synopsis/?p=1250
    File Function: Online Synopsis
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
    2. Miao, Ruiqing, 2013. "Impact of Ethanol Plants on Local Land Use Change," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 1-19, August.
    3. John A. List & Daniel L. Millimet & Per G. Fredriksson & W. Warren McHone, 2003. "Effects of Environmental Regulations on Manufacturing Plant Births: Evidence from a Propensity Score Matching Estimator," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 944-952, November.
    4. Wendong Zhang & Cynthia J. Nickerson, 2015. "Housing Market Bust and Farmland Values: Identifying the Changing Influence of Proximity to Urban Centers," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 91(4), pages 605-626.
    5. Stevens, Andrew, 2015. "Fueling Local Water Pollution: Ethanol Refineries, Land Use, and Nitrate Runoff," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205741, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Xiaodong Du & David A. Hennessy & William M. Edwards, 2007. "Determinants of Iowa Cropland Cash Rental Rates: Testing Ricardian Rent Theory," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 07-wp454, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    7. Claassen, Roger & Cooper, Joseph C. & Carriazo, Fernando, 2011. "Crop Insurance, Disaster Payments and Land Use Change: The Effect of Sodsaver on Incentives for Grassland Conversion," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 1-17, May.
    8. Kevin McNew & Duane Griffith, 2005. "Measuring the Impact of Ethanol Plants on Local Grain Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 164-180.
    9. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2008. "Some Practical Guidance For The Implementation Of Propensity Score Matching," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 31-72, February.
    10. Turnquist, Alan & Fortenbery, T. Randall & Foltz, Jeremy D., 2008. "Progress or Devastation? The Effects of Ethanol Plant Location on Local Land Use," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6125, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Meyer, Bruce D, 1995. "Natural and Quasi-experiments in Economics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 151-161, April.
    12. Kevin McNew & Duane Griffith, 2005. "Measuring the Impact of Ethanol Plants on Local Grain Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 164-180.
    13. Motamed, Mesbah J. & McPhail, Lihong Lu, 2011. "Spatial Dimensions of US Crop Selection: Recent Responses to Markets and Policy," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103270, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Zhang, Wendong & Irwin, Elena G. & Nickerson, Cynthia J., 2012. "The Expanding Ethanol Market and Farmland Values: Identifying the Changing Influence of Proximity to Agricultural Delivery Points," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124690, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Mesbah Motamed & Lihong McPhail & Ryan Williams, 2016. "Corn Area Response to Local Ethanol Markets in the United States: A Grid Cell Level Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(3), pages 726-743.
    16. Mora, Ricardo & Reggio, Iliana, 2012. "Treatment effect identification using alternative parallel assumptions," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1233, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    17. Jason Henderson & Brent A. Gloy, 2009. "The impact of ethanol plants on cropland values in the great plains," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 69(1), pages 36-48, May.
    18. Sarah J. Reber, 2005. "Court Ordered Desegregation: Successes and Failures Integrating American Schools since Brown versus Board of Education," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(3).
    19. Katchova, Ani L., 2009. "The Spatial Effect of Ethanol Biorefinery Locations on Local Corn Prices," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49309, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shukla, Sumedha & Arora, Gaurav, 2022. "A rank similarity test for quantile treatment effects in conjunction with propensity score matching: An application to crop yield impacts of agricultural credit," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322569, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Jennifer Ifft & Deepak Rajagopal & Ryan Weldzuis, 2019. "Ethanol Plant Location and Land Use: A Case Study of CRP and the Ethanol Mandate," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 37-55, March.
    3. Wang, Tong & Luri, Moses & Janssen, Larry & Hennessy, David & Feng, Hongli & Wimberly, Michael & Arora, Gaurav, 2016. "Farmers’ Rankings of the Determinants of Land Use Decisions at the Margins of the Corn Belt," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235109, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Wang, Tong & Luri, Moses & Janssen, Larry & Hennessy, David A. & Feng, Hongli & Wimberly, Michael C. & Arora, Gaurav, 2017. "Determinants of Motives for Land Use Decisions at the Margins of the Corn Belt," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 227-237.
    5. Ifft, Jennifer & Rajagopal, Deepak & Ryan, Weldzius, 2016. "The effect of the ethanol mandate on the Conservation Reserve Program," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236178, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Junpyo Park & John Anderson & Eric Thompson, 2019. "Land-Use, Crop Choice, and Proximity to Ethanol Plants," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-14, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arora, Gaurav & Wolter, Peter T. & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David A., 2015. "Role of Ethanol Plants in Dakotas’ Land Use Change: Analysis Using Remotely Sensed Data," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 206565, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Junpyo Park, 2022. "Distance to Biorefinery Plants and Its Influence on Agricultural Land Value: Evidence from the United States Midwest Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Liu, Bing & Hudson, Darren & Farmer, Michael, 2015. "The Impact of a Sorghum-Based Ethanol Plant on Local Cotton Acreage: A Spatial Approach," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229799, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Gardner, Grant & Sampson, Gabriel S., 2022. "Land Value Impacts of Ethanol Market Expansion by Irrigation Status," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(3), September.
    5. Junpyo Park & John Anderson & Eric Thompson, 2019. "Land-Use, Crop Choice, and Proximity to Ethanol Plants," Land, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-14, July.
    6. Stevens, Andrew, 2015. "Fueling Local Water Pollution: Ethanol Refineries, Land Use, and Nitrate Runoff," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205741, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Ani L. Katchova & Ana Claudia Sant’Anna, 2019. "Impact of Ethanol Plant Location on Corn Revenues for U.S. Farmers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-13, November.
    8. Jennifer Ifft & Deepak Rajagopal & Ryan Weldzuis, 2019. "Ethanol Plant Location and Land Use: A Case Study of CRP and the Ethanol Mandate," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 37-55, March.
    9. Ifft, Jennifer & Rajagopal, Deepak & Ryan, Weldzius, 2016. "The effect of the ethanol mandate on the Conservation Reserve Program," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 236178, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Sampson, Gabriel & Gardner, Grant, 2021. "Land Value Impacts of Ethanol Market Expansion Differ by Irrigation Status," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313854, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Stevens, Andrew W., 2021. "Ethanol Refineries and Local Land Use," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315304, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Stigler, Matthieu M., 2018. "Supply response at the field-level: disentangling area and yield effects," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274343, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Yanbing Wang & Michael S. Delgado & Juan Sesmero & Benjamin M. Gramig, 2020. "Market Structure and the Local Effects of Ethanol Expansion on Land Allocation: A Spatially Explicit Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(5), pages 1598-1622, October.
    14. Ben H. Blomendahl & Richard K. Perrin & Bruce B. Johnson, 2011. "The Impact of Ethanol Plants on Surrounding Farmland Values: A Case Study," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 87(2), pages 223-232.
    15. Christian Volpe Martincus & Jerónimo Carballo, 2010. "Is Export Promotion Effective in Developing Countries? Firm-Level Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Exports," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 36763, Inter-American Development Bank.
    16. Hohendanner Christian, 2011. "Ein-Euro-Jobs und reguläre Beschäftigung / One-Euro-Jobs and Regular Employment: Eine Analyse potenzieller Substitutionseffekte mit Daten des IAB-Betriebspanels / An Analysis of Potential Substitution," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(2), pages 210-246, April.
    17. Svetlana Batrakova & Ronald Davies, 2012. "Is there an environmental benefit to being an exporter? Evidence from firm-level data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(3), pages 449-474, September.
    18. Matthew A. COLE & Robert R.J. ELLIOTT & OKUBO Toshihiro & Liyun ZHANG, 2017. "The Pollution Outsourcing Hypothesis: An empirical test for Japan," Discussion papers 17096, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Serra, Teresa, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between food and energy markets: A semiparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1155-1164.
    20. Austin, K.G. & Jones, J.P.H. & Clark, C.M., 2022. "A review of domestic land use change attributable to U.S. biofuel policy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:16-wp564. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.