IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ias/cpaper/14-sr109.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using Recent Land Use Changes to Validate Land Use Change Models

Author

Listed:
  • Bruce A. Babcock
  • Zabid Iqbal

Abstract

Economics models used by California, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the EU Commission all predict significant emissions from conversion of land from forest and pasture to cropland in response to increased biofuel production. The models attrib-ute all supply response not captured by increased crop yields to land use conversion on the extensive margin. The dramatic increase in agricultural commodity prices since the mid-2000s seems ideally suited to test the reliability of these models by comparing actual land use changes that have occurred since the price increase to model predictions. Country-level data from FAOSTAT were used to measure land use changes. To smooth annual variations, changes in land use were measured as the change in average use across 2004 to 2006 compared to average use across 2010 to 2012. Separate measure-ments were made of changes in land use at the extensive margin, which involves bring-ing new land into agriculture, and changes in land use at the intensive margin, which includes increased double cropping, a reduction in unharvested land, a reduction in fallow land, and a reduction in temporary or mowed pasture. Changes in yield per harvested hectare were not considered in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce A. Babcock & Zabid Iqbal, 2014. "Using Recent Land Use Changes to Validate Land Use Change Models," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 14-sr109, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:14-sr109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.card.iastate.edu/products/publications/pdf/14sr109.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.card.iastate.edu/products/publications/synopsis/?p=1230
    File Function: Online Synopsis
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce A. Babcock, 2011. "The Impact of Ethanol and Ethanol Subsidies on Corn Prices: Revisiting History," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 11-pb5, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Alexandre Gohin, 2014. "Assessing the Land Use Changes and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Biofuels: Elucidating the Crop Yield Effects," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(4), pages 575-586.
    3. Alexandre Gohin, 2014. "Assessing the Land Use Changes and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Biofuels: Elucidating the Crop Yield Effects," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(4), pages 575-586.
    4. Hertel, Thomas & Golub, Alla & Jones, Andrew & O'Hare, Michael & Plevin, Richard & Kammen, Daniel, 2009. "Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of U.S. Maize Ethanol: The Role of Market-Mediated Responses," GTAP Working Papers 3160, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. Feng Song & Jinhua Zhao & Scott M. Swinton, 2011. "Switching to Perennial Energy Crops Under Uncertainty and Costly Reversibility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(3), pages 764-779.
    6. Swastika, Dewa K.S. & Kasim, Firdaus & Sudana, Wayan & Hendayana, Rachmat & Suhariyanto, Kecuk & Gerpacio, Roberta V. & Pingali, Prabhu L., 2004. "Maize in Indonesia: Production Systems, Constraints, and Research Priorities," Maize Production Systems Papers 7647, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yeh, Sonia & Witcover, Julie & Lade, Gabriel E. & Sperling, Daniel, 2016. "A review of low carbon fuel policies: Principles, program status and future directions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 220-234.
    2. Hoekman, S. Kent & Broch, Amber, 2018. "Environmental implications of higher ethanol production and use in the U.S.: A literature review. Part II – Biodiversity, land use change, GHG emissions, and sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 3159-3177.
    3. Cui, Hao (David) & Tyner, Wally, 2017. "Modeling Land Intensification Response in GTAP: Implications for Biofuels Induced Land Use Change," Conference papers 332812, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Gohin, Alexandre, 2016. "Understanding the revised CARB estimates of the land use changes and greenhouse gas emissions induced by biofuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 402-412.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hyunseok Kim & GianCarlo Moschini, 2018. "The Dynamics of Supply: U.S. Corn and Soybeans in the Biofuel Era," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(4), pages 593-613.
    2. Gohin, Alexandre, 2016. "Understanding the revised CARB estimates of the land use changes and greenhouse gas emissions induced by biofuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 402-412.
    3. Sampson, Gabriel S. & Al-Sudani, Amer & Bergtold, Jason, 2021. "Local irrigation response to ethanol expansion in the High Plains Aquifer," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Debnath, Deepayan & Whistance, Jarrett & Thompson, Wyatt, 2017. "The causes of two-way U.S.–Brazil ethanol trade and the consequences for greenhouse gas emission," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2045-2053.
    5. Sajedinia, Ehsanreza & Tyner, Wally, 2017. "Use of General Equilibrium Models in Evaluating Biofuels Policies," Conference papers 332885, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. T. Brunelle & P. Dumas & W. Ben Aoun & Benoit Gabrielle, 2018. "Unravelling Land-Use Change Mechanisms at Global and Regional Scales," Biophysical Economics and Resource Quality, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-14, September.
    7. Basak Bayramoglu & Jean-François Jacques, 2016. "The economic and environmental effects of a biofuel mandate policy: the case of France [Les effets économiques et environnementaux d’une politique d’incorporation obligatoire de biocarburants : le ," Post-Print hal-02877013, HAL.
    8. Iglesias Pinedo, Wilman J., 2021. "The impact of Renewable Energy Standards on the biomass supply and agricultural land demand in the US Great Plains Region," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314085, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Gohin, Alexandre, 2015. "Understanding the revised land use changes and greenhouse gas emissions induced by biofuels," Working Papers 208914, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    10. Ehsanreza Sajedinia & Wallace E. Tyner, 2021. "Use of General Equilibrium Models in Evaluating Biofuels Policies," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Peter Dixon & Joseph Francois & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (ed.), POLICY ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY A Festschrift Celebrating Thomas Hertel, chapter 14, pages 437-465, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Alexandre Gohin, 2015. "Understanding the revised land use changes and greenhouse gas emissions induced by biofuels," Working Papers SMART 15-08, INRAE UMR SMART.
    12. Work, James & Hauer, Grant & Luckert, M.K. (Marty), 2018. "What ethanol prices would induce growers to switch from agriculture to poplar in Alberta? A multiple options approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 51-62.
    13. Keil, Alwin & Saint-Macary, Camille & Zeller, Manfred, 2013. "Intensive Commercial Agriculture in Fragile Uplands of Vietnam: How to Harness its Poverty Reduction Potential while Ensuring Environmental Sustainability?," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 52(1), pages 1-25, February.
    14. Gao, Yixuan & Malone, Trey & Schaefer, K. Aleks & Myers, Robert J., 2023. "Disentangling Short-Run COVID-19 Price Impact Pathways in the US Corn Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 48(2), May.
    15. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    16. Al-Maadid, Alanoud & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2017. "Spillovers between food and energy prices and structural breaks," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1-18.
    17. Monge, Juan J. & Ribera, Luis A. & Jifon, John L. & Silva, Jorge A. da & Richardson, James W., 2014. "Economics and Uncertainty of Lignocellulosic Biofuel Production from Energy Cane and Sweet Sorghum in South Texas," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1-28, November.
    18. Keil, Alwin & Nielsen, Thea, 2012. "Accounting for farmers’ risk preferences in investigating land allocation decisions in marginal environments: a test of various elicitation measures in an application from Vietnam," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126054, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Glauber, Joseph W. & Effland, Anne, 2016. "United States agricultural policy: Its evolution and impact:," IFPRI discussion papers 1543, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Ji, Yongjie & Rabotyagov, Sergey & Kling, Catherine L., 2014. "Crop Choice and Rotational Effects: A Dynamic Model of Land Use in Iowa in Recent Years," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170366, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:14-sr109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.