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Trade Liberalisation, Poverty and Inequality in South Africa: A CGE-Microsimulation Analysis

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Author Info
Nicolas Hérault (Centre d'Économie du Développement (IFReDE-GRES) Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV and Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

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Abstract

This paper aims to study the effects on poverty and income inequality of trade liberalisation in South Africa. This is achieved by using a micro-macro model. The main issue of interest is the effect of international trade on households (especially their income); some changes may contribute to reduce poverty while other changes could work against the poor. The approach presented in this paper relies on combining a macro-oriented computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a microsimulation (MS) model. Combining these two models the microeconomic effects (on poverty and inequality) of a macroeconomic policy (trade liberalisation) can be analysed. The paper gives details about the MS model, the CGE model and the "top-down" approach used to link the two models. The main concern regarding poor households is whether the decrease in real (or nominal) earnings for formal low-skilled and skilled workers is offset by the upward trend in formal employment levels. This appears to be the case implying a decrease in poverty due to trade liberalisation. Although whites emerge as the main winners, the increase in inter-group inequality is more than compensated by the decrease in intra-group inequality.

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Paper provided by Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne in its series Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series with number wp2005n17.

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Length: 324 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2005
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Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2005n17

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  1. Nicolas Hérault, 2005. "A Micro-Macro Model for South Africa: Building and Linking a Microsimulation Model to a CGE Model," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2005n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  2. John Cockburn, 2004. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," Development and Comp Systems 0409012, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. repec:pal:imfstp:v:48:y:2001:i:1:p:8 is not listed on IDEAS
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  4. Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  5. Servaas van der Berg & Megan Louw, 2003. "Changing Patterns of South African income distribution: Towards time series estimates of distribution and poverty," Working Papers 02/2003, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Cogneau, Denis & Robilliard, Anne-Sophie, 2000. "Growth, distribution and poverty in Madagascar," TMD discussion papers 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
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