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Evaluación de los efectos de las políticas de exportación y de productividad en la distribución del ingreso a partir de microsimulaciones

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  • Carlos Foronda Rojas

    ()
    (Centro de Generación de Información y Estadísticas, Universidad Privada Boliviana)

Abstract

En este trabajo se emplean modelos de elección discretos y la técnica de microsimulaciones para estudiar el efecto de shocks o perturbaciones sobre la distribución del ingreso de los hogares. Se utiliza esta metodología para evaluar los efectos ex-post de políticas de comercio exterior y productivas sobre el ingreso de las personas a partir de dos ejercicios de simulación. En el primer ejercicio se consideran eventuales efectos de la destrucción de empleos relacionados con el sector exportador (no ampliación del ATPDEA). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que se incrementa considerablemente la pobreza y, marginalmente, la desigualdad. En el segundo ejercicio se simula una política que permita mayores empleos exportadores (ampliación del ATPDEA y conquista de nuevos mercados), acompañada de un incremento de la productividad en el sector agrícola. Los resultados muestran que esta combinación de políticas permite reducir significativamente la pobreza y la desigualdad.

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File URL: http://www.upb.edu/RePEc/iad/wpaper/0206.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Privada Boliviana in its series Investigación & Desarrollo with number 0206.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2006
Date of revision: Mar 2006
Publication status: Published in Investigación & Desarrollo, March 2006, pages 41-60
Handle: RePEc:iad:wpaper:0206

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Web page: http://www.upb.edu/node/235
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Related research

Keywords: Microsimulaciones; políticas de exportación; probit multinomial; redistribución; globalización;

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  1. Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni & Federico Gutierrez, 2004. "Simulating Income Distribution Changes in Bolivia: a Microeconometric Approach," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0012, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  2. François Bourguignon & Amedeo Spadaro, 2006. "Microsimulation as a Tool for Evaluating Redistribution Policies," Working Papers 20, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
  3. Heckman, James J, 1974. "Shadow Prices, Market Wages, and Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(4), pages 679-94, July.
  4. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  5. Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni & Walter Sosa Escudero, 2000. "Characterization of inequality changes through microeconometric decompositions. The case of Greater Buenos Aires," Department of Economics, Working Papers 025, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  6. Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2004. "Labor Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026203316x, December.
  7. Gonzalvez, M. & Menendez, A., 2000. "The Effect of Unemployment on Labor Earnings Inequality: Argentina in the Nineties," Papers 193, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  8. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc74-1, July.
  9. François Bourguignon & Martin Fournier & Marc Gurgand, 2002. "Selection Bias Correction Based on the Multinomial Logit Model," Working Papers 2002-04, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  10. Jacob A. Mincer, 1974. "Introduction to "Schooling, Experience, and Earnings"," NBER Chapters, in: Schooling, Experience, and Earnings, pages 1-4 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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