Können offene Stellen als Vorlaufindikator für Neueinstellungen dienen? : Ergebnisse aus der IAB-Erhebung des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Stellenangebots
Abstract"In economic research, empirical evidence has been missing on the question whether vacancies can be seen as a forward indicator for employment. Discussing current trends in vacancies, this is often assumed: An increase in the number of job vacancies gets linked to good prospects for employment. What has been missing is empirical evidence that is grounded on representative data for an economy as a whole. Based on data from the German Job Vacancy Survey, we shed some light on the relationship between job vacancies and hires. For the first time this is explored with data on job vacancies in Germany that is representative for the economy as a whole. We estimate a dynamic linear panel model taking into account the time series structure of the data. The analyses show a significant and positive relationship between immediately to be filled vacancies and new hires. The latter were drawn from the statistics of the German Federal Employment Agency. The effect is strongest with a time-lag of two quarters. Including marginal, small-scale employment (geringfügige Beschäftigung) into our estimation we also found a positive and significant effect of vacancies on hirings in the same quarter. The findings presented herein will be the starting point for our further research on the role of job vacancies in the labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB-Forschungsbericht with number 201204.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 05 Mar 2012
Date of revision:
offene Stellen; Personaleinstellung; Prognostik; Beschäftigungsentwicklung; Arbeitsplatzangebot; Indikatorenbildung;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
- J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Blanchard, 2006.
"European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas,"
CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 5-59, 01.
- Olivier Blanchard, 2005. "European Unemployment: The Evolution of Facts and Ideas," NBER Working Papers 11750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Katharine G. Abraham, 1987. "Help-Wanted Advertising, Job Vacancies, and Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 207-248.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2013.
"The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 128(2), pages 581-622.
- Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2010. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," NBER Working Papers 16265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2009. "The establishment-level behavior of vacancies and hiring," Working Papers 09-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Lippman, Steven A & McCall, John J, 1976. "The Economics of Job Search: A Survey," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 347-68, September.
- Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993.
"Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July.
- Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
- Weber, Andrea, 1997.
"Vacancy Durations - A Model for Employer's Search,"
41, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000.
"Looking Into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0470, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
- Petrongolo, Barbara & Pissarides, Christopher, 2000. "Looking Into The Black Box: A Survey Of The Matching Function," CEPR Discussion Papers 2409, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gorter, Cees & Hassink, Wolter H. J. & Russo, Giovanni, 2003. "The structure of hiring and labour market tightness," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 99-103, July.
- Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1989. "The Beveridge Curve," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1), pages 1-76.
- Gross, Dominique M., 1993.
"Equilibrium vacancy and unemployment: A flow approach to the beveridge curve,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 301-327.
- Gross, D.M., 1991. "Equilibrium Vacancy and Unemployment: A Flow Approach to the Beveridge Curve," Discussion Papers dp91-02, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
- Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988.
"Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data,"
Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to demonstrate IV estimation of VAR in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTZ00185, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Mortensen, Dale T., 1994. "The cyclical behavior of job and worker flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1121-1142, November.
- Pissarides, C A, 1979. "Job Matchings with State Employment Agencies and Random Search," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 818-33, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (IAB, Geschäftsbereich Dokumentation und Bibliothek).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.