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Politikberatung mit dem Simulationsmodell PACE-L : Möglichkeiten und Grenzen am Beispiel einer Senkung der Sozialabgaben

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Author Info

  • Feil, Michael

    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Zika, Gerd

    ()
    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

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    Abstract

    "Der Beitrag stellt das numerische allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodell PACE-L (Policy Analysis based on Computable Equilibrium, Labour market module) in kompakter Form vor. Dieses quantitative gesamtwirtschaftliche Modell wird am IAB zur Beurteilung von beschäftigungsrelevanten Reformvorschlägen, insbesondere im Bereich der Steuerpolitik und Sozialen Sicherung, verwendet. Der Beitrag beschreibt erstens die PACE-L zugedachte Rolle im Rahmen der IAB-Forschung. Zweitens diskutiert er den dem Modell zugrunde liegenden Gleichgewichtsbegriff. Wir versuchen dabei zu verdeutlichen, warum ein Gleichgewichtsmodell zur Untersuchung von Arbeitslosigkeit und damit verbundenen Fragestellungen geeignet ist. Drittens präsentieren wir einige Simulationsrechnungen mit einer neueren Version von PACE-L. Schließlich vergleichen wir ausgewählte Ergebnisse von PACE-L mit zwei makroökonometrischen Modellen, dem IAB/ INFORGE- und dem IAB/RWI-Modell. Der Modellvergleich zeigt, dass die längerfristigen Wirkungen verminderter Sozialabgaben von allen drei Modellen insgesamt recht ähnlich quantifiziert werden. Allerdings deuten insbesondere die Ergebnisse mit dem IAB/INFORGE-Modell darauf hin, dass sich die kurzfristigen Effekte einer solchen Politik von den längerfristigen unterscheiden können." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB-Forschungsbericht with number 200517.

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    Length: 43 pages
    Date of creation: 23 May 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:iab:iabfob:200517

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    Related research

    Keywords: Simulation - Methode; Makroökonomie - Modell; Modellentwicklung; Reformpolitik - Auswirkungen; Steuerpolitik; Sozialabgaben; Beschäftigungseffekte; Gleichgewichtstheorie; Arbeitsmarktgleichgewicht; Arbeitsmarkttheorie; Nachfrageentwicklung; Angebotsentwicklung; Preisentwicklung; Spieltheorie; Beschäftigungspolitik; IAB; Politikberatung;

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    References

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    1. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 1982. "Der Gleichgewichtsbegriff in der ökonomischen Analyse," Munich Reprints in Economics 3372, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Gürtzgen, Nicole & Feil, Michael & Boeters, Stefan, 2004. "Discrete Working Time Choice in an Applied General Equilibrium Model," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-20, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    3. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521319867.
    5. Haroon Mumtaz & Jean Imbs & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back," IMF Working Papers 03/68, International Monetary Fund.
    6. David Romer, 1993. "The New Keynesian Synthesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 5-22, Winter.
    7. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 375-398, May.
    8. Nickell, Stephen & Layard, Richard, 1999. "Labor market institutions and economic performance," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 46, pages 3029-3084 Elsevier.
    9. Perroni, Carlo & Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Regular flexibility of nested CES functions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 335-343, February.
    10. Hahn, Frank, 1978. "On Non-Walrasian Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 1-17, February.
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    Cited by:
    1. Heinrich Jess, 2006. "Steuerfinanzierung von Sozialleistungen? Verteilungs- und Effizienzeffekte einer Umfinanzierung von Sozialleistungen in der gesetzlichen Renten- und Krankenversicherung," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 226(4), pages 436-462, July.

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