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Do Japanese Stock Prices Reflect Macro Fundamentals?

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  • Wenjuan Chen
  • Anton Velinov

Abstract

This paper investigates to what extent the fundamentals of the real economy are re ected in the stock prices of Japan. A Markov switching VAR model with switching variances is used to test the structural identi cation scheme. Identification of fundamental and nonfundamental shocks is shown to be supported by the data. Based on the appropriate structural restriction, the historical stock prices are decomposed into fundamental components and nonfundamental components. The decomposition shows that the linkage between Japanese stock prices and real activity shocks became strengthened since the bubble collapsed in the beginning of 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenjuan Chen & Anton Velinov, 2012. "Do Japanese Stock Prices Reflect Macro Fundamentals?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-037
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock price; real activity; financial crisis; structural restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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