IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hum/wpaper/sfb649dp2006-075.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inhomogeneous Dependency Modelling with Time Varying Copulae

Author

Listed:
  • Enzo Giacomini
  • Wolfgang Härdle
  • Ekaterina Ignatieva
  • Vladimir Spokoiny

Abstract

Measuring dependence in a multivariate time series is tantamount to modelling its dynamic structure in space and time. In the context of a multivariate normally distributed time series, the evolution of the covariance (or correlation) matrix over time describes this dynamic. A wide variety of applications, though, requires a modelling framework different from the multivariate normal. In risk management the non-normal behaviour of most financial time series calls for nonlinear (i.e. non-gaussian) dependency. The correct modelling of non-gaussian dependencies is therefore a key issue in the analysis of multivariate time series. In this paper we use copulae functions with adaptively estimated time varying parameters for modelling the distribution of returns, free from the usual normality assumptions. Further, we apply copulae to estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio and show its better performance over the RiskMetrics approach, a widely used methodology for VaR estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Enzo Giacomini & Wolfgang Härdle & Ekaterina Ignatieva & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2006. "Inhomogeneous Dependency Modelling with Time Varying Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-075, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2006-075.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation of copula-based semiparametric time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 307-335, February.
    2. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin & Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2006. "Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Multivariate Copula Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1228-1240, September.
    3. Clive W. J. Granger, 2003. "Time Series Concepts for Conditional Distributions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 689-701, December.
    4. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation and model selection of semiparametric copula-based multivariate dynamic models under copula misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 125-154.
    5. Bouye, Eric & Durlleman, Valdo & Nikeghbali, Ashkan & Riboulet, Gaël & Roncalli, Thierry, 2000. "Copulas for finance," MPRA Paper 37359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Enzo Giacomini & Wolfgang Härdle, 2005. "Value-at-Risk Calculations with Time Varying Copulae," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prokhorov, Artem & Schmidt, Peter, 2009. "Likelihood-based estimation in a panel setting: Robustness, redundancy and validity of copulas," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 93-104, November.
    2. Sukjin Han & Sungwon Lee, 2019. "Estimation in a generalization of bivariate probit models with dummy endogenous regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 994-1015, September.
    3. Avdulaj, Krenar & Barunik, Jozef, 2015. "Are benefits from oil–stocks diversification gone? New evidence from a dynamic copula and high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 31-44.
    4. Manner, H., 2007. "Estimation and model selection of copulas with an application to exchange rates," Research Memorandum 056, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    5. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    6. Bodnar, Olha & Bodnar, Taras & Gupta, Arjun K., 2010. "Estimation and inference for dependence in multivariate data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(4), pages 869-881, April.
    7. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    8. Katja Ignatieva & Eckhard Platen & Renata Rendek, 2010. "Using Dynamic Copulae for Modeling Dependency in Currency Denominations of a Diversifed World Stock Index," Research Paper Series 284, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin & Pouzo, Demian & Ying, Zhiliang, 2010. "Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 129-142, July.
    10. Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes & Cecília Aíube, 2011. "Copula based models for serial dependence," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(1), pages 68-82, February.
    11. Fan, Yanqin & Henry, Marc, 2023. "Vector copulas," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 128-150.
    12. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    13. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2013. "Estimating non-linear serial and cross-interdependence between financial assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 837-846.
    14. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer & Stefan Trück, 2011. "The Dependence Structure between Carbon Emission Allowances and Financial Markets - A Copula Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3418, CESifo.
    15. Wanling Huang & Artem Prokhorov, 2014. "A Goodness-of-fit Test for Copulas," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 751-771, October.
    16. Fantazzini, Dean, 2010. "Three-stage semi-parametric estimation of T-copulas: Asymptotics, finite-sample properties and computational aspects," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2562-2579, November.
    17. Huang, Hongming & Kao, Chihwa & Urga, Giovanni, 2008. "Copula-based tests for cross-sectional independence in panel models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 224-228, August.
    18. Guannan Liu & Wei Long & Bingduo Yang & Zongwu Cai, 2022. "Semiparametric estimation and model selection for conditional mixture copula models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 49(1), pages 287-330, March.
    19. Fantazzini, Dean, 2011. "Analysis of multidimensional probability distributions with copula functions," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 22(2), pages 98-134.
    20. Rezitis, Anthony N. & Rokopanos, Andreas, 2019. "Impact of trade liberalisation on dairy market price co-movements between the EU, Oceania, and the United States," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(3), July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value-at-Risk; time varying copula; adaptive estimation; nonparametric estimation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RDC-Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.