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Inhomogeneous Dependency Modelling with Time Varying Copulae

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Author Info
Enzo Giacomini
Wolfgang Härdle
Ekaterina Ignatieva
Vladimir Spokoiny

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Abstract

Measuring dependence in a multivariate time series is tantamount to modelling its dynamic structure in space and time. In the context of a multivariate normally distributed time series, the evolution of the covariance (or correlation) matrix over time describes this dynamic. A wide variety of applications, though, requires a modelling framework different from the multivariate normal. In risk management the non-normal behaviour of most financial time series calls for nonlinear (i.e. non-gaussian) dependency. The correct modelling of non-gaussian dependencies is therefore a key issue in the analysis of multivariate time series. In this paper we use copulae functions with adaptively estimated time varying parameters for modelling the distribution of returns, free from the usual normality assumptions. Further, we apply copulae to estimation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a portfolio and show its better performance over the RiskMetrics approach, a widely used methodology for VaR estimation.

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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2006-075.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-075

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Related research
Keywords: Value-at-Risk; time varying copula; adaptive estimation; nonparametric estimation.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods

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  10. Yasemin Boztug & Thomas Reutterer, 2006. "A Combined Approach for Segment-Specific Analysis of Market Basket Data," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-006, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Daniel Hernandez–Hernandez & Alexander Schied, 2005. "Robust Utility Maximization in a Stochastic Factor Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-007, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Michel A. Robe & Eva-Maria Steiger & Pierre-Armand Michel, 2006. "Penalties and Optimality in Financial Contracts: Taking Stock," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-013, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  20. Taleb Ahmad & Wolfgang Härdle & Julius Mungo, 2006. "On the Difficulty to Design Arabic E-learning System in Statistics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-062, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  21. Bovenberg, Lans & Uhlig, Harald, 2006. "Pension systems and the allocation of macroeconomic risk," Discussion Paper 101, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Lydia Mechtenberg & Roland Strausz, . "The Bologna Process: How student mobility affects multi-cultural skills and educational quality," Papers 030, Departmental Working Papers. [Downloadable!]
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  24. Dominique Demougin & Anja Schöttner, 2006. "Technological Choice under Organizational Diseconomies of Scale," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-028, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  25. Kurt Geppert & Martin Gornig & Axel Werwatz, 2006. "Economic Growth of Agglomerations and Geographic Concentration of Industries – Evidence for Germany," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Bernd Görzig & Martin Gornig & Axel Werwatz, 2006. "Produktdiversifizierung: Haben die ostdeutschen Unternehmen den Anschluss an den Westen geschafft? – Eine vergleichende Analyse mit Mikrodaten der amtlichen Statistik," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-046, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Hans Gersbach & Harald Uhlig, 2006. "On the Coexistence of Banks and Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  29. Carsten Trenkler, 2006. "Bootstrapping Systems Cointegration Tests with a Prior Adjustment for Deterministic Terms," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-012, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  30. Harald Uhlig, 2006. "Approximate Solutions to Dynamic Models - Linear Methods," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-030, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  36. Denis Belomestny & Grigori N. Milstein & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2006. "Regression methods in pricing American and Bermudan options using consumption processes," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-051, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  39. Andreas Thams, 2006. "Fiscal Policy Effects in the European Union," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  43. Ralf Brüggemann & Wolfgang Härdle & Julius Mungo & Carsten Trenkler, 2006. "VAR Modeling for Dynamic Semiparametric Factors of Volatility Strings," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Szymon Borak & Wolfgang Härdle & Stefan Trück & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Convenience Yields for CO2 Emission Allowance Futures Contracts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-076, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tim Grebe & Julia Schmid & Andreas Stiehler, 2006. "Do Individuals Recognize Cascade Behavior of Others? - An Experimental Study -," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-079, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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