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Forecasting the Term Structure of Variance Swaps

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Author Info
Kai Detlefsen
Wolfgang Härdle

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Abstract

Recently, Diebold and Li (2003) obtained good forecasting results for yield curves in a reparametrized Nelson-Siegel framework. We analyze similar modeling approaches for price curves of variance swaps that serve nowadays as hedging instruments for options on realized variance. We consider the popular Heston model, reparametrize its variance swap price formula and model the entire variance swap curves by two exponential factors whose loadings evolve dynamically on a weekly basis. Generalizing this approach we consider a reparametrization of the three-dimensional Nelson-Siegel factor model. We show that these factors can be interpreted as level, slope and curvature and how they can be estimated directly from characteristic points of the curves. Moreover, we analyze a semiparametric factor model. Estimating autoregressive models for the factor loadings we get termstructure forecasts that we compare in addition to the random walk and the static Heston model that is often used in industry. In contrast to the results of Diebold and Li (2003) on yield curves, no model produces better forecasts of variance swap curves than the random walk but forecasting the Heston model improves the popular static Heston model. Moreover, the Heston model is better than the flexible semiparametric approach that outperforms the Nelson-Siegel model.

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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2006-052.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-052

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Related research
Keywords: Term structure Variance swap curve Heston model Nelson-Siegel curve Semiparametric factor model

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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  1. Kurt Geppert & Martin Gornig & Axel Werwatz, 2006. "Economic Growth of Agglomerations and Geographic Concentration of Industries – Evidence for Germany," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-008, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Bruno Deffains & Dominique Demougin, 2006. "Institutional Competition, Political Process and Holdup," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-027, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Carsten Trenkler, 2006. "Bootstrapping Systems Cointegration Tests with a Prior Adjustment for Deterministic Terms," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-012, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Harald Uhlig, 2006. "Approximate Solutions to Dynamic Models - Linear Methods," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-030, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Daniel Hernandez–Hernandez & Alexander Schied, 2005. "Robust Utility Maximization in a Stochastic Factor Model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-007, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
  10. Oliver Volckart, 2006. "The Influence of Information Costs on the Integration of Financial Markets: Northern Europe, 1350-1560," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-049, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Enzo Giacomini & Michael Handel & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2006. "Time Dependent Relative Risk Aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Bernd Görzig & Martin Gornig & Axel Werwatz, 2004. "East Germany's Wage Gap : A Non-Parametric Decomposition Based on Establishment Characteristics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 451, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Andreas Thams, 2006. "Fiscal Policy Effects in the European Union," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  17. Lydia Mechtenberg & Roland Strausz, . "The Bologna Process: How student mobility affects multi-cultural skills and educational quality," Papers 030, Departmental Working Papers. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Nadja Silberhorn & Yasemin Boztug & Lutz Hildebrandt, 2006. "Estimation with the Nested Logit Model: Specifications and Software Particularities," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-017, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "Discussion of "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis using Long-Run Restrictions" by Neville Francis and Valerie A. Ramey," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-042, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, revised May 2006. [Downloadable!]
  20. Dominique Demougin & Oliver Fabel, 2006. "The Division of Ownership in New Ventures," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-047, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Ralf Brüggemann & Wolfgang Härdle & Julius Mungo & Carsten Trenkler, 2006. "VAR Modeling for Dynamic Semiparametric Factors of Volatility Strings," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  22. Bernd Görzig & Martin Gornig & Axel Werwatz, 2006. "Firm Specific Wage Spread in Germany - Decomposition of regional differences in inter firm wage dispersion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-045, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  23. Enzo Weber, 2006. "British Interest Rate Convergence Between The Us And Europe: A Recursive Cointegration Analysis," The Icfai Journal of Monetary Economics, Icfai Press, vol. 0(4), pages 29-47, November.
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  24. Dominique Demougin & Anja Schöttner, 2006. "Technological Choice under Organizational Diseconomies of Scale," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-028, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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