Portfolio Value at Risk Based on Independent Components Analysis
AbstractRisk management technology applied to high dimensional portfolios needs simple and fast methods for calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR). The multivariate normal framework provides a simple off-the-shelf methodology but lacks the heavy tailed distributional properties that are observed in data. A principle component based method (tied closely to the elliptical structure of the distribution) is therefore expected to be unsatisfactory. Here we propose and analyze a technology that is based on Independent Component Analysis (ICA). We study the proposed ICVaR methodology in an extensive simulation study and apply it to a high dimensional portfolio situation. Our analysis yields very accurate VaRs.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2005-060.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
independent component analysis; Value-at-Risk;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2006-01-24 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-FIN-2006-01-24 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2006-01-24 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-RMG-2006-01-24 (Risk Management)
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