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Real GDP in Pre-War East Asia: A 1934-36 Benchmark Purchasing Power Parity Comparison with the U.S

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  • Kyoji Fukao
  • Debin Ma
  • Tangjun Yuan

Abstract

This article provides estimates of purchasing power parity (PPP) converters for expenditure side GDP of Japan/China and Japan/U.S through a detailed matching of prices for more than 50 types of goods and services in private consumption and about 20 items or sectors for investment and government expenditure. Based on our finding and linking with the earlier studies on the relative price levels of Taiwan and Korea, we derive the mid-1930s benchmark PPP adjusted per capita income of Japan, China, Taiwan and Korea at 31%, 10%, 23%, and 12% of the U.S. level respectively for the mid-1930s. These estimates corrected the consistent downward bias in East Asian income levels based on market exchange rate conversions. While confirming Angus Maddison's estimates for China and Taiwan based on the 1990 benchmark back-projection method, they do point to a 23% and 85% overestimate in his comparable figures for Japan and Korea respectively for the mid-1930s period. This article develops a preliminary theoretical and empirical framework to demonstrate the possible source of the biases in the back-projection method. We briefly discuss the implications of our findings on the initial conditions and long-term growth dynamics in East Asia and beyond.

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File URL: http://hi-stat.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/research/discussion/2005/pdf/D05-132.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series with number d05-132.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hst:hstdps:d05-132

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  1. Godo, Yoshihisa & Hayami, Yujiro, 2002. "Catching Up in Education in the Economic Catch-Up of Japan with the United States, 1890-1990," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(4), pages 961-78, July.
  2. "Yuan, Tangjun" & "Fukao, Kyoji", 2002. "The Purchasing Power Parity of Japan, Korea and Taiwan in the 1930s―An International Comparison of Real Consumption―," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 53(4), pages 322-336, January.
  3. Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Myung Soo Cha, 2012. "Wage Convergence and Divergence in East Asia, 1900-39," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-253, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  2. Fukao, Kyoji & Wu, Harry X. & Yuan, Tangjun, 2009. "Comparative Output and Labour Productivity in Manufacturing for China, Japan, Korea and the United States in Circa 1935 by a Production PPP Approach," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-26, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  3. Joerg Baten & Debin Ma & Stephen Morgan & Qing Wang, 2009. "Evolution of living standards and human capital in China in 18-20th century: evidences from real wage and anthropometrics," Economic History Working Papers 27870, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  4. Michael Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2011. "Does International Trade Really Lead to Business Cycle Synchronization?-A panel data approach," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  5. Jean-Pascal Bassino & Kyoji Fukao & Ralph Paprzycki & Tokihiko Settsu & Tangjun Yuan, 2010. "Regional Inequality and Industrial Structures in Pre-War Japan: An Analysis Based on New Prefectural GDP Estimates," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd10-138, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  6. Woltjer, P. & Smits, Jan-Pieter & Frankema, Ewout, 2010. "Comparing Productivity in the Netherlands, France, UK and US, ca. 1910:A new PPP benchmark and its implications for changing economic leadership," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-113, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
  7. Lee, Hun-Chang, 2007. "When and how did Japan catch up with Korea?: A comparative study of the pre-industrial economies of Korea and Japan," CEI Working Paper Series 2006-15, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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