Re-examining Symmetry of Shocks for East Asia: Results Using a VAR with Sign Restrictions
AbstractI revisit the hotly debated topic regarding the possibility of introducing a common currency for East Asia from the point of view of shock symmetry. I first point out a serious problem of the existing studies which use the VAR method with long-run restrictions developed by Blanchard and Quah (1989) in that the signs of the impulse response functions to the same structural shock are not necessarily consistent across the countries. This means that the high (low) correlations of structural shocks do not necessarily imply low (high) costs of a common currency area. To overcome this problem, I apply the VAR method with sign restrictions developed by Uhlig (2005). I used the AD-AS model to impose sign restrictions on the responses of GDP and CPI to demand and supply shocks. One main finding is that demand shocks are significantly positively correlated among almost all East Asian countries. But overall, East Asia as a whole is not suitable for a common currency because correlations of supply shocks are low.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series with number gd08-042.
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Date of revision:
Structural VAR; Long run restriction; Sign restriction; Symmetry of Shocks; Common Currency; East Asia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-04-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2009-04-18 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2009-04-18 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-SEA-2009-04-18 (South East Asia)
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