An Optimal Weight for Realized Variance Based on Intermittent High-Frequency Data
AbstractIn Japanese stock markets, there are two kinds of breaks, i.e., nighttime and lunch break, where we have no trading, entailing inevitable increase of variance in estimating daily volatility via naive realized variance (RV). In order to perform a much more stabilized estimation, we are concerned here with a modification of the weighting technique of Hansen and Lunde (2005). As an empirical study, we estimate optimal weights in a certain sense for Japanese stock data listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. We found that, in most stocks appropriate use of the optimally weighted RV can lead to remarkably smaller estimation variance compared with naive RV, hence substantially to more accurate forecasting of daily volatility.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series with number gd08-033.
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
high-frequency data; market microstructure noise; realized volatility; Japanese stock markets; variance of realized variance;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2009-03-07 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2009-03-07 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FMK-2009-03-07 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MST-2009-03-07 (Market Microstructure)
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