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An Optimal Weight for Realized Variance Based on Intermittent High-Frequency Data

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Author Info
Hiroki Masuda
Takayuki Morimoto

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Abstract

In Japanese stock markets, there are two kinds of breaks, i.e., nighttime and lunch break, where we have no trading, entailing inevitable increase of variance in estimating daily volatility via naive realized variance (RV). In order to perform a much more stabilized estimation, we are concerned here with a modification of the weighting technique of Hansen and Lunde (2005). As an empirical study, we estimate optimal weights in a certain sense for Japanese stock data listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. We found that, in most stocks appropriate use of the optimally weighted RV can lead to remarkably smaller estimation variance compared with naive RV, hence substantially to more accurate forecasting of daily volatility.

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File URL: http://gcoe.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/research/discussion/2008/pdf/gd08-033.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series with number gd08-033.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd08-033

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Related research
Keywords: high-frequency data; market microstructure noise; realized volatility; Japanese stock markets; variance of realized variance;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Other
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Asger Lunde, 2005. "A Realized Variance for the Whole Day Based on Intermittent High-Frequency Data," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 525-554. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2003. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 579-625, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2004. "Econometric Analysis of Realized Covariation: High Frequency Based Covariance, Regression, and Correlation in Financial Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 885-925, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-11.


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