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Bookmaker and pari-mutuel betting: Is a (reverse) favourite-longshot bias built-in?

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Author Info
Alexander K. Koch () (Department of Economics, Royal Holloway, University of London)
Hui-Fai Shing () (Department of Economics, Royal Holloway, University of London)

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Abstract

A widely documented empirical regularity in gambling markets is that bets on high probability events (a race won by a ``favourite'') have higer expected returns than bets on low probability events (a ``longshot'' win). Such favourite-longshot (FL) biases however appear to be more severe and persistent in bookmaker markets than in pari-mutuel markets; the latter sometims exhibit no bias or a revers FL bias. Our results help understand these differences: the odds grid in bookmaker markets leads to a built-in FL bias, wheras that used in pari-mutuel betting pushes these markets toward a reverse FL bias.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London in its series Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics with number 07/04.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:hol:holodi:0704

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Related research
Keywords: Gambling; Favourite-Lonshot Bias; Bookmaker betting; Parimutuel Betting; Breakage; Tick Size.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Woodland, Linda M & Woodland, Bill M, 1994. " Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 269-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2001. "Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 983-995, April.
  3. Williams, Leighton Vaughan & Paton, David, 1998. "Why Are Some Favourite-Longshot Biases Positive and Others Negative?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(11), pages 1505-10, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Linda M. Woodland & Bill M. Woodland, 2003. "The Reverse Favourite-longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in Major League Baseball: An Update," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2), pages 113-123, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 1999. "Information Efficiency in Betting Markets: A Survey," Bulletin of Economic Research, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, January.
  6. Williams, Leighton Vaughan & Paton, David, 1997. "Why Is There a Favourite-Longshot Bias in British Racetrack Betting Markets?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 150-58, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. W. David Walls & Kelly Busche, 2003. "Broken odds and the favourite-longshot bias in parimutuel betting: a direct test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 311-314, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Terrell, Dek & Farmer, Amy, 1996. "Optimal Betting and Efficiency in Parimutuel Betting Markets with Information Costs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 846-68, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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