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Effectiveness of Loan-To-Value Ratio Policy and Its Transmission Mechanism ¨C Empirical Evidence from Hong Kong

Author

Listed:
  • Eric Wong

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Kelvin Ho

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Andrew Tsang

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This paper provides a non-technical summary of two recent empirical studies to shed light on key important issues regarding the implementation of loan-to-value (LTV) policy as a macroprudential tool, including its effectiveness, potential drawbacks and its transmission mechanism to improve financial stability. Empirical evidence suggests that LTV policy is effective in reducing systemic risk associated with boom-and-bust cycles in property markets. Although the LTV policy may be associated with higher liquidity constraints on homebuyers, we show that the mortgage insurance programme (MIP) can mitigate this drawback without undermining the effectiveness of LTV policy. Thus, MIPs play an important role in enhancing the net benefits of LTV policy. Concerning the transmission mechanism, empirical evidence suggests that the policy pass-through to property market activities may be weak. By contrast, there is clear evidence that tightening LTV cap would reduce household leverage and credit growth, and that lower leverage plays a major role in strengthening banks¡¯ resilience to property price shocks. This finding supports the view that household leverage would be an optimal target of LTV policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Wong & Kelvin Ho & Andrew Tsang, 2015. "Effectiveness of Loan-To-Value Ratio Policy and Its Transmission Mechanism ¨C Empirical Evidence from Hong Kong," Working Papers 202015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:202015
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    File URL: http://hkimr.org/uploads/publication/426/wp-no-20_2015-final-.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maddala, G S & Nelson, Forrest D, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Methods for Models of Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1013-1030, November.
    2. Eric Wong & Andrew Tsang & Steven Kong, 2014. "How Does Loan-To-Value Policy Strengthen Banks' Resilience to Property Price Shocks - Evidence from Hong Kong," Working Papers 032014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Ronel Elul & Nicholas S. Souleles & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Dennis Glennon & Robert Hunt, 2010. "What "Triggers" Mortgage Default?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 490-494, May.
    4. Kent, Richard J, 1980. "Credit Rationing and the Home Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 488-501, August.
    5. Eric Wong & Tom Fong & Ka-fai Li & Henry Choi, 2011. "Loan-to-Value Ratio as a Macro-Prudential Tool - Hong Kong's Experience and Cross-Country Evidence," Working Papers 1101, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    6. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
    7. Leonard V. Zumpano & Patricia M. Rudolph & David C. Cheng, 1986. "The Demand and Supply of Mortgage Funds and Mortgage Loan Terms," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 91-109, March.
    8. Fair, Ray C & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1972. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 497-514, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cardaci, Alberto, 2018. "Inequality, household debt and financial instability: An agent-based perspective," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 434-458.
    2. Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 2017. "Hong Kong’s property market and macroprudential measures," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy frameworks, implementation and relationships with other policies, volume 94, pages 141-152, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Alberto Cardaci & Francesco Saraceno, 2019. "Between Scylla And Charybdis: Income Distribution, Consumer Credit, And Business Cycles," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 953-971, April.
    4. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2018. "Dynamic Stochastic General EQUILIBRIUM ‐ BASED Assessment of Nonlinear Macroprudential Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 632-657, October.
    5. Wong, Siu Kei & Cheung, Ka Shing & Deng, Kuang Kuang & Chau, Kwong Wing, 2021. "Policy responses to an overheated housing market: Credit tightening versus transaction taxes," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Ranisavljević Duško & Hadžić Miroljub, 2016. "Realistic Evaluation of the Ratio: Loan-To-value – The Key to Minimising the Credit Risk," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 54(3), pages 449-468, September.

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    Keywords

    Banking; Hong Kong; Loan-To-Value; Macroprudential Policy;
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