Do Derivative Markets Contain Useful Information for Signaling "Hot Money" Flows?
AbstractThis study examines whether information from derivative markets is useful for signaling "hot money" and other large capital flows in an economy where the monetary authority pursues a policy of exchange rate stability. Specifically, this study examines the information content of various Hong Kong traded derivative securities for signaling changes in the aggregate balance of the Hong Kong banking system during a period of intense IPO activity and speculation on the revaluation of the renminbi. The impact of the introduction of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) Convertibility Undertakings on the dynamic relationships among capital flows, stock market volatility and stock market turnover is also examined. Finally, the implications for monetary policymakers in potentially using information from derivative markets are assessed. The results show that derivative markets contain useful information for signaling "hot money" flows. Granger causality tests from a VAR model show that Hong Kong dollar forward and RMB non-deliverable forward (NDF) prices predict future variation in the aggregate balance. Moreover, changes in aggregate balance has a significant impact on Hong Kong's interbank rates. The findings also suggest that the introduction of the May 18, 2005 Convertibility Undertakings may have increased the credibility of the Linked Exchange Rate System by discouraging the use of the Hong Kong dollar and Hong Kong dollar denominated assets as speculative vehicles on RMB denominated assets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 122010.
Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 55th Floor , Two International Finance Centre , 8 Finance Street , Central, Hong Kong
Phone: (852)2878 1978
Fax: (852)2878 7006
Web page: http://www.hkimr.org
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-FMK-2010-10-09 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2010-10-09 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2010-10-09 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen & Edison, Hali, 2001.
"Stopping hot money,"
13862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.