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What Drives Hong Kong Dollar Swap Spreads: Credit or Liquidity?

Author

Listed:
  • Cho-Hoi Hui

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Lillie Lam

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of variations in the yield spreads (swap spreads) between Hong Kong dollar interest rate swaps and Exchange Fund paper for a period from July 2002 to April 2008. A vector error-correction model is used to analyse the impact of various shocks on swap spreads. The issue is whether "liquidity" or "credit" (or both) is the main determinant of swap spread dynamics. The results show that the dynamics are influenced significantly by "credit" between July 2002 and September 2007. However, "liquidity" between the Exchange Fund long-term notes and short-term bills is the major determinant of swap spreads between September 2007 and April 2008. The substantial demand of the Exchange Fund short-term bills, that reflected the strong preference of market participants for holding short-term instruments for liquidity purposes probably due to the sub-prime crisis in the US, is the driving force of the rise in swap spreads in the last quarter of 2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho-Hoi Hui & Lillie Lam, 2008. "What Drives Hong Kong Dollar Swap Spreads: Credit or Liquidity?," Working Papers 0810, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:0810
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    File URL: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/research/working/pdf/HKMAWP08_10_full.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Grinblatt, 2001. "An Analytic Solution for Interest Rate Swap Spreads," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 113-149, September.
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    3. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. "An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
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    5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    6. Huang, Ying & Neftci, Salih N. & Guo, Feng, 2008. "Swap curve dynamics across markets: Case of US dollar versus HK dollar," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 79-93, February.
    7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    8. Feldhütter, Peter & Lando, David, 2008. "Decomposing swap spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 375-405, May.
    9. Lang, Larry H. P. & Litzenberger, Robert H. & Luchuan Liu, Andy, 1998. "Determinants of interest rate swap spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1507-1532, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hong Kong dollar interest rates; swap spreads; vector error-correction model; sub-prime crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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