A VAR Framework for Forecasting Hong Kong'S Output and Inflation
AbstractThis paper develops a multivariate time series model to forecast output growth and inflation in the Hong Kong economy. We illustrate the steps involved in designing and building a vector autoregression (VAR) forecasting model, and consider three types of VAR models, including unrestricted, Bayesian and conditional VARs. Our findings suggest that the Bayesian VAR framework incorporating external influences provide a useful tool to produce more accurate forecasts relative to the unrestricted VARs and univariate time series models, and conditional forecasts have the potential to further improve upon the Bayesian models. In particular, a six-variable Bayesian VAR including domestic output, domestic inflation, domestic investment, world GDP, the best lending rate, and import prices appears to generate good out-of-sample forecasts results.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hong Kong Monetary Authority in its series Working Papers with number 0702.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 55th Floor, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central
Web page: http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/
More information through EDIRC
VAR and BVAR models; conditional forecasts; forecasting; model evaluation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-09-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-09-09 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2007-09-09 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-09-09 (Macroeconomics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Simon Chan).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.