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問題企業の復活:「失われた20年」の再検証

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  • 中村, 純一
  • 福田, 慎一
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    Abstract

    わが国では、バブル崩壊後の「失われた10年」において,経営再建の見込みが乏しい,いわゆる「ゾンビ企業」を存続させたことが,経済の回復を遅らせた主要な原因の1つであると指摘されてきた.しかし,かつて「ゾンビ企業」と呼ばれた企業で,2000年代半ばまでに破綻や上場廃止に追い込まれた企業はごくわずかで,存続した「ゾンビ企業」の大半は業績を大きく改善させた.その一方,2000年代には不良債権比率が大幅に低下したにもかかわらず,日本経済の成長は限定的で,経済のデフレ状態も持続した.本稿では,Fukuda and Nakamura(2011)で用いたデータを,世界同時危機という大規模な負の外的ショックに見舞われた2008年度まで延長したうえで,多項ロジット・モデルの推定を行い,「ゾンビ企業」の復活要因に関する含意を再検証した.その結果,従業員や固定資産の削減といったリストラクチャリングが復活の有効な手段であった一方で,売上高の伸びは不良債権処理が進んだ2000年代に復活に有意なプラスの効果を与えなかったことが明らかになった.これらは,「ゾンビ企業」の復活はコスト・カットによるところが大きく,売上高の伸びのように収入増の要因は小さいことを示唆するもので,コスト・カットが銀行の不良債権問題や企業の過剰債務問題を解決するうえでは有効であったことを物語る.しかし,売上高が伸び悩むなかでのコスト・カットは,デフレの新たな原因ともなり,2000年代の日本経済にもう1つの「失われた10年」を生み出した可能性がある.

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    File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/25632/1/wp2012-14.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series CEI Working Paper Series with number 2012-14.

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    Length: 28, 13p
    Date of creation: Mar 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:hit:hitcei:2012-14

    Note: March 2013, What Happened to ‘Zombie’ Firms in Japan?: Reexamination for the Lost Two Decades
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