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活断層リスクの社会的認知と活断層帯周辺の地価形成の関係について : 上町断層帯のケース

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  • 顧, 濤
  • 中川, 雅之
  • 齊藤, 誠
  • 山鹿, 久木
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    Abstract

    本稿は、大阪府の東部を南北に走る上町断層帯周辺の地価形成に関する実証分析を通じて、活断層リスクがどの程度認知されてきたのかを検証している。上町断層帯の両側2km 圏内において断層近接地ほど地価が有意に低下する傾向は、1995 年1 月に起きた兵庫県南部地震以降に顕著となった。一方、兵庫県南部地震で地震エネルギーが解放された六甲・淡路島断層帯の周辺地価は、兵庫県南部地震の甚大な被害で相対的に低下したものの、災害復旧が進んだ2000 年代半ばまでに従来の水準まで回復した。上町断層帯は、1970年代よりその存在が知られていたが、その危険性が社会的、政策的に認知されたのは兵庫県南部で都市直下型地震が起きてからである。本稿の実証結果は、兵庫県南部地震の勃発で上町活断層帯に対する認識が一変し、経済取引において上町断層帯にかかわる危険性が土地価格に強く反映されるようになったことを示している。, In this paper, we explore how social recognition toward active fault risks is reflected in asset pricing using the officially appraised prices of the land that is situated in the neighborhood of the Uemachi active fault line, lying along a north-south axis in the eastern part of Osaka prefecture. The presence of the Uemachi active fault line has been well recognized among scientific researchers since the 1970s. However, these active fault risks have been registered significantly in land pricing, only since ordinary citizens and even policymakers first realized considerable earthquake risks involved in the land along active fault lines by observing that in January 1995, the earthquake driven by the Rokko-Awaji active fault line had catastrophic damages on the southern part of Hyogo prefecture, which is adjoining at the west of Osaka prefecture.

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    File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/18689/1/070econDP10-14.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University in its series Discussion Papers with number 2010-14.

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    Length: 32p
    Date of creation: Oct 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hit:econdp:2010-14

    Note: Social recognition towards active fault risks and its impact on land pricing : A case of the Uemachi active fault line in Japan
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    Related research

    Keywords: active fault; earthquake risk; hedonic pricing; land pricing; limited attention;

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