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On the Trade and Price Effects of Preferential Trade Agreements

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  • Falvey, Rod
  • Foster-McGregor, Neil

Abstract

In this paper we extend recent work using the Gravity Model to estimate the trade and price effects of Preferential Trading Arrangements (PTAs), by explicitly taking into account the extent of the preferential access being provided by the importer. This involves specifying a trade model, deriving appropriate PTA variables, appending them to a gravity-type equation and estimating it. We find that relying on the estimated coefficient on a PTA dummy variable overestimates the trade creating effects of PTAs. We also use average tariff and estimated trade cost data to calculate the effects of the PTAs in force in 2006 on trade flows. We show that ignoring the general equilibrium effects of PTA membership greatly distorts the distribution of outcomes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Research on Contemporary Economic Systems, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University in its series CCES Discussion Paper Series with number 51.

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Length: 29 p.
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hit:ccesdp:51

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Keywords: Preferential Trading Arrangements; Gravity Model; Trade Diversion;

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  1. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October.
  2. Baldwin, Richard & Jaimovich, Dany, 2010. "Are Free Trade Agreements Contagious?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7904, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2010. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements," SOI - Working Papers 1013, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
  4. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. World Bank, 2008. "World Development Indicators 2008," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 11855, October.
  6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. James E. Anderson & Yoto V. Yotov, 2011. "Terms of Trade and Global Efficiency Effects of Free Trade Agreements, 1990-2002," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 780, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2011.
  8. Cipollina, Maria & Salvatici, Luca, 2006. "Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-analysis," Working Papers 18877, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  9. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. URATA Shujiro & OKABE Misa, 2007. "The Impacts of Free Trade Agreements on Trade Flows: An Application of the Gravity Model Approach," Discussion papers 07052, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  11. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
  12. Carrere, Celine, 2006. "Revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 223-247, February.
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