IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hig/wpaper/96-ec-2015.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the Efficiency of Sequels in the Film Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Denis Y. Orlov

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Evgeniy M. Ozhegov

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

Film industry has been under investigation from social scientists for the last 30 years. A lot of the work has been dedicated to the analysis of the sequel effect on film revenue. The current paper employs data on wide releases in the US from 2010 to 2014 and provides a new look at sequel return to the domestic box office. We apply the Heckman and nonparametric sample selection approach in order to control for the non-random nature of the sequels’ sample. It was found that sequels are successful only due to the fame of the first part of the series. If the sample selection is taken into control, sequels do not excel one part movies in terms of the box office. Moreover, decomposing the main factors of sequels’ overearnings compared to one part movies, we found that sequels have a less competitive environment, a higher production budget, more time being in release and the number of opened theatres

Suggested Citation

  • Denis Y. Orlov & Evgeniy M. Ozhegov, 2015. "Estimating the Efficiency of Sequels in the Film Industry," HSE Working papers WP BRP 96/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:96/ec/2015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hse.ru/data/2015/06/24/1083754231/96EC2015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anita Elberse & Jehoshua Eliashberg, 2003. "Demand and Supply Dynamics for Sequentially Released Products in International Markets: The Case of Motion Pictures," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 329-354.
    2. James J. Heckman, 1976. "The Common Structure of Statistical Models of Truncation, Sample Selection and Limited Dependent Variables and a Simple Estimator for Such Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 475-492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. F. L. Jones, 1983. "On Decomposing the Wage Gap: A Critical Comment on Blinder's Method," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 18(1), pages 126-130.
    4. Ho, Jason Y.C. & Dhar, Tirtha & Weinberg, Charles B., 2009. "Playoff payoff: Super Bowl advertising for movies," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 168-179.
    5. Oaxaca, Ronald, 1973. "Male-Female Wage Differentials in Urban Labor Markets," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(3), pages 693-709, October.
    6. Whitney K. Newey, 2009. "Two-step series estimation of sample selection models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(s1), pages 217-229, January.
    7. Francis Vella, 1998. "Estimating Models with Sample Selection Bias: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(1), pages 127-169.
    8. Gronau, Reuben, 1974. "Wage Comparisons-A Selectivity Bias," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1119-1143, Nov.-Dec..
    9. Liran Einav, 2010. "Not All Rivals Look Alike: Estimating An Equilibrium Model Of The Release Date Timing Game," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(2), pages 369-390, April.
    10. Mitali Das & Whitney K. Newey & Francis Vella, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Sample Selection Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 33-58.
    11. Basuroy, Suman & Chatterjee, Subimal, 2008. "Fast and frequent: Investigating box office revenues of motion picture sequels," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(7), pages 798-803, July.
    12. Alan S. Blinder, 1973. "Wage Discrimination: Reduced Form and Structural Estimates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 8(4), pages 436-455.
    13. Liran Einav, 2007. "Seasonality in the U.S. motion picture industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(1), pages 127-145, March.
    14. Charles F. Manski, 1989. "Anatomy of the Selection Problem," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(3), pages 343-360.
    15. Andrew Ainslie & Xavier Drèze & Fred Zufryden, 2005. "Modeling Movie Life Cycles and Market Share," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(3), pages 508-517, November.
    16. Gregory M. Duncan & Duane E. Leigh, 1980. "Wage Determination in the Union and Nonunion Sectors: A Sample Selectivity Approach," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 34(1), pages 24-34, October.
    17. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    18. Reimers, Cordelia W, 1983. "Labor Market Discrimination against Hispanic and Black Men," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 570-579, November.
    19. Nelson, Philip, 1974. "Advertising as Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 729-754, July/Aug..
    20. Heckman, James J, 1974. "Shadow Prices, Market Wages, and Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(4), pages 679-694, July.
    21. Newey, Whitney K., 1999. "Consistency of two-step sample selection estimators despite misspecification of distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 129-132, May.
    22. Holbrook, Morris B, 1999. "Popular Appeal versus Expert Judgments of Motion Pictures," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 144-155, September.
    23. Shoshana Neuman & Ronald Oaxaca, 2004. "Wage Decompositions with Selectivity-Corrected Wage Equations: A Methodological Note," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 2(1), pages 3-10, April.
    24. Jehoshua Eliashberg & Mohanbir S. Sawhney, 1994. "Modeling Goes to Hollywood: Predicting Individual Differences in Movie Enjoyment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(9), pages 1151-1173, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Denis Y. Orlov & Evgeniy M. Ozhegov, 2016. "Do sequel movies really earn more than non-sequels? Evidence from the US box office," ACEI Working Paper Series AWP-03-2016, Association for Cultural Economics International, revised Apr 2016.
    2. Shoshana Neuman & Ronald Oaxaca, 2004. "Wage Decompositions with Selectivity-Corrected Wage Equations: A Methodological Note," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 2(1), pages 3-10, April.
    3. Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Siyi Luo, 2018. "Distribution regression with sample selection, with an application to wage decompositions in the UK," CeMMAP working papers CWP68/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Fortin, Nicole & Lemieux, Thomas & Firpo, Sergio, 2011. "Decomposition Methods in Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 1, pages 1-102, Elsevier.
    5. Martin Huber, 2014. "Treatment Evaluation in the Presence of Sample Selection," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 869-905, November.
    6. Lewbel, Arthur, 2007. "Endogenous selection or treatment model estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 777-806, December.
    7. Neuman, Shoshana & Oaxaca, Ronald L, 2004. "Wage Differentials in the 1990s in Israel: Endowments, Discrimination and Selectivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 4709, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Martin Huber & Giovanni Mellace, 2015. "Sharp Bounds on Causal Effects under Sample Selection," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(1), pages 129-151, February.
    9. Seneviratne, Prathi, 2020. "Gender wage inequality during Sri Lanka’s post-reform growth: A distributional analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Liu, Ruixuan & Yu, Zhengfei, 2022. "Sample selection models with monotone control functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 321-342.
    11. Ben Jann, 2008. "A Stata implementation of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition," ETH Zurich Sociology Working Papers 5, ETH Zurich, Chair of Sociology, revised 14 May 2008.
    12. Claudia Olivetti & Barbara Petrongolo, 2008. "Unequal Pay or Unequal Employment? A Cross-Country Analysis of Gender Gaps," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(4), pages 621-654, October.
    13. Galvis-Aponte, Luis Armando, 2011. "Diferenciales salariales por género y región en Colombia : una aproximación con regresión por cuantiles," Chapters, in: Bonilla-Mejía, Leonardo (ed.), Dimensión regional de las desigualdades en Colombia, chapter 6, pages 209-252, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Martin Huber & Giovanni Mellace, 2014. "Testing exclusion restrictions and additive separability in sample selection models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 75-92, August.
    15. Marjan Petreski & Nikica Blazevski & Blagica Petreski, 2014. "Gender Wage Gap when Women are Highly Inactive: Evidence from Repeated Imputations with Macedonian Data," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 393-411, December.
    16. Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Siyi Luo, 2023. "Distribution regression with sample selection and UK wage decomposition," CeMMAP working papers 09/23, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    17. Golder, Stefan M., 2000. "Endowment or Discrimination? An Analysis of Immigrant-Native Earnings Differentials in Switzerland," Kiel Working Papers 967, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Evgeniy M. Ozhegov, 2014. "The Underwriting, Choice And Performance Of Government-Insured Mortgages In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 31/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    19. Wojtyś, Małgorzata & Marra, Giampiero & Radice, Rosalba, 2018. "Copula based generalized additive models for location, scale and shape with non-random sample selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-14.
    20. C Dougherty, 2003. "Why is the Rate of Return to Schooling Higher For Women Than For Men?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0581, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sequels; sample selection; nonparametric estimation; box office;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:96/ec/2015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shamil Abdulaev or Shamil Abdulaev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hsecoru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.