IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hic/wpaper/145.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Buying Peace: The Mirage of Demobilizing Rebels

Author

Listed:
  • Olivia D�Aoust

    (Universit� libre de Bruxelles (SBS-EM, ECARES), FNRS)

  • Olivier Sterck

    (Universit� catholique de Louvain (IRES))

  • Philip Verwimp

    (Universit� libre de Bruxelles (SBS-EM, ECARES, Centre Emile Bernheim))

Abstract

In 2009, hostilities were brought to an end in Burundi when the FNL rebel group laid down weapons. In exchange for peace, ex-rebels benefited from a disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) program to finance their return to civilian life. A few years earlier, another rebel group (CNDD-FDD) had gone through the same program. In this paper, we assess the impact of this complex program from a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint. First, we develop an agricultural model in order to predict the impact of demobilization cash transfers on beneficiary and non-beneficiary households. Then, we test the theoretical model by using a household panel dataset collected in rural Burundi. We find that, in the short run, the cash payments received by ex-combatants had a positive direct impact on purchases and investments of beneficiaries, as well as an indirect positive impact on non-beneficiaries. We also find that the direct and indirect impacts on purchases vanish in the long run. These results suggest that reinsertion grants may favour the acceptation of ex-combatants in their local communities in the short run, but are most likely not sufficient for peace to hold. More generally, it emphasizes the importance of considering spillovers in the evaluation of development programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivia D�Aoust & Olivier Sterck & Philip Verwimp, 2013. "Buying Peace: The Mirage of Demobilizing Rebels," HiCN Working Papers 145, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:145
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/HiCN-WP-145.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Margherita Comola, 2008. "Educational programs in rural Nepal: Peer communication and information spillovers," Working Papers halshs-00585981, HAL.
    2. Wendy Janssens, 2005. "Measuring Externalities in Program Evaluation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-017/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Mar 2006.
    3. Kim, Jooseop & Alderman, Harold & Orazem, Peter F, 1999. "Can Private School Subsidies Increase Enrollment for the Poor? The Quetta Urban Fellowship Program," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 13(3), pages 443-465, September.
    4. Patricia Justino, 2009. "Poverty and Violent Conflict: A Micro-Level Perspective on the Causes and Duration of Warfare," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(3), pages 315-333, May.
    5. Manuela Angelucci & Giacomo De Giorgi, 2009. "Indirect Effects of an Aid Program: How Do Cash Transfers Affect Ineligibles' Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 486-508, March.
    6. Deaton, A. & Zaidi, S., 1999. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," Papers 192, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    7. Kathleen Beegle & Joachim De Weerdt & Stefan Dercon, 2011. "Migration and Economic Mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from a Tracking Survey," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 1010-1033, August.
    8. Angus Deaton & Salman Zaidi, 2002. "Guidelines for Constructing Consumption Aggregates for Welfare Analysis," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14101, April.
    9. Macartan Humphreys & Jeremy M. Weinstein, 2007. "Demobilization and Reintegration," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(4), pages 531-567, August.
    10. Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, January.
    11. Ciro Avitabile, 2011. "Spillover Effects in Healthcare Programs: Evidence on Social Norms and Information Sharing," CSEF Working Papers 271, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 14 Mar 2011.
    12. Nigel Key & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alain De Janvry, 2000. "Transactions Costs and Agricultural Household Supply Response," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 245-259.
    13. Michael J. Gilligan & Eric N. Mvukiyehe & Cyrus Samii, 2013. "Reintegrating Rebels into Civilian Life," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(4), pages 598-626, August.
    14. Philip Verwimp & Tom Bundervoet, 2009. "Civil War and the Welfare of Extended Households: Evidence from Longitudinal Data from Burundi," HiCN Working Papers 70, Households in Conflict Network.
    15. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Frederico Finan, 2009. "Neighborhood Peer Effects in Secondary School Enrollment Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(4), pages 695-716, November.
    16. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    17. Hubert, M. & Vandervieren, E., 2008. "An adjusted boxplot for skewed distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(12), pages 5186-5201, August.
    18. Ciro Avitabile, 2011. "Spillover Effects in Healthcare Programs: Evidence on Social Norms and Information Sharing," CSEF Working Papers 271, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 14 Mar 2011.
    19. Alain Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2006. "Progress in the Modeling of Rural Households’ Behavior under Market Failures," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, in: Alain Janvry & Ravi Kanbur (ed.), Poverty, Inequality and Development, chapter 0, pages 155-181, Springer.
    20. Kim, Jooseop & Alderman, Harold & Orazem, Peter, 1999. "Can Private School Subsidies Increase Schooling for the Poor? The Quetta Urban Fellowship Program," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1709, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    21. J. Taylor & Irma Adelman, 2003. "Agricultural Household Models: Genesis, Evolution, and Extensions," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 33-58, January.
    22. Macours, Karen & Vakis, Renos, 2009. "Changing households'investments and aspirations through social interactions : evidence from a randomized transfer program," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5137, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Colombo & Olivia D'Aoust & Olivier Sterck, 2019. "From Rebellion to Electoral Violence: Evidence from Burundi," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 333-368.
    2. Olivier Sterck, 2020. "Fighting for Votes: Theory and Evidence on the Causes of Electoral Violence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(347), pages 844-883, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abramitzky, Ran & Lavy, Victor & Pérez, Santiago, 2021. "The long-term spillover effects of changes in the return to schooling," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    2. M. Angelucci & V. Di Maro, 2016. "Programme evaluation and spillover effects," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 22-43, March.
    3. Bobonis, Gustavo J. & Castro, Roberto & Morales, Juan S., 2015. "Conditional Cash Transfers for Women and Spousal Violence: Evidence of the Long-Term Relationship from the Oportunidades Program in Rural Mexico," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7267, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Andrew Tedesco & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2013. "Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys," HiCN Working Papers 153, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Andrea Colombo & Olivia D'Aoust & Olivier Sterck, 2019. "From Rebellion to Electoral Violence: Evidence from Burundi," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 333-368.
    6. List, John A. & Momeni, Fatemeh & Zenou, Yves, 2020. "The Social Side of Early Human Capital Formation: Using a Field Experiment to Estimate the Causal Impact of Neighborhoods," IZA Discussion Papers 13966, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Gustavo J Bobonis & Roberto Castro & Juan S Morales, 2020. "Legal Reforms, Conditional Cash Transfers, and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers tecipa-678, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    8. Matteo Bobba & Jérémie Gignoux, 2014. "Neighborhood effects and take-up of transfers in integrated social policies: Evidence from Progresa," PSE Working Papers halshs-00646590, HAL.
    9. Brück, Tilman & Justino, Patricia & Verwimp, Philip & Avdeenko, Alexandra, 2010. "Identifying Conflict and Violence in Micro-Level Surveys," IZA Discussion Papers 5067, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. List, John A. & Momeni, Fatemeh & Zenou, Yves, 2019. "Are Estimates of Early Education Programs Too Pessimistic? Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment that Causally Measures Neighbor Effects," Working Paper Series 1293, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    11. Dennis Egger & Johannes Haushofer & Edward Miguel & Paul Niehaus & Michael Walker, 2022. "General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence From Kenya," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(6), pages 2603-2643, November.
    12. Zenou, Yves & List, John & Momeni, Fatemeh, 2019. "Are Estimates of Early Education Programs Too Pessimistic? Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment that Causally Measures," CEPR Discussion Papers 13725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Matteo Bobba & Jérémie Gignoux, 2011. "Policy-induced Social Interactions and Schooling Decisions," Working Papers halshs-00962478, HAL.
    14. Sarah Baird & Aislinn Bohren & Craig McIntosh & Berk Ozler, 2014. "Designing Experiments to Measure Spillover Effects," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-032, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    15. Tillman Hönig, 2019. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 293, Households in Conflict Network.
    16. Sarah Baird & Aislinn Bohren & Craig McIntosh & Berk Ozler, 2017. "Optimal Design of Experiments in the Presence of Interference*, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 16-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 30 Nov 2017.
    17. David K. Evans & Arkadipta Ghosh, 2008. "Prioritizing Educational Investments in Children in the Developing World," Working Papers WR-587, RAND Corporation.
    18. Manuela Angelucci & Silvia Prina & Heather Royer & Anya Samek, 2015. "When Incentives Backfire: Spillover Effects in Food Choice," NBER Working Papers 21481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Jacobus de Hoop & Jed Friedman & Eeshani Kandpal & Furio C. Rosati, 2019. "Child Schooling and Child Work in the Presence of a Partial Education Subsidy," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(2), pages 503-531.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Civil Conflict; Burundi; Disarmament; Demobilization and Reintegration Program; Cash Transfer; Spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:145. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tilman Brück or the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hicn.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.