Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Swedish Fertility Swings and Public Expenditure for Children

Contents:

Author Info

  • Lindh, Thomas

    ()
    (Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO))

  • Hong, Ying

    ()
    (Institute for Futures Study)

Abstract

This paper studies whether Swedish fertility swings and variation in public expenditure for children are related events. In the 1930s Swedish birth rates had fallen to levels close to the death rates and in public discourse this was perceived as a major social and national crisis, spurring a range of social policy reforms. While total fertility rates in Sweden have varied over large spans the completed cohort fertility rates are almost constant around 2 children per woman for women born in the 20th century. Using unique data for the years 1930-1997 on public expenditure per eligible child for schools, child allowances and child care we estimate age-specific fertility for broad age groups as a function of these variables. The results indicate that the age group 25-29 is most sensitive to variations in this public expenditure thus providing a tentative explanation of the swings in period fertility in terms of policy induced tempo variation. School expenditure is negatively correlated to fertility while child care and child allowance is positively correlated. This pattern is consistent with a quantity-quality trade-off by the parents. To check the predictive power of the model we use data from 1998-2007 and get an excellent prediction of the fertility turn-around after 1999 for all age groups except 35 and above where we tend to under-predict at the 10-year horizon. Further research along these lines is needed to uncover the causal mechanisms of these very stable correlations.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://studieportal-elnu.lnu.se/mod/forum/discuss.php?d=1364
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University in its series CAFO Working Papers with number 2011:1.

as in new window
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 07 Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:vxcafo:2011_001

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, SE 351 95 Växjö, Sweden
Phone: +46 470 70 87 64
Web page: http://lnu.se/research-groups/cafo?l=en
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: fertility swings; tempo effects; public child expenditure;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:vxcafo:2011_001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Andreas Mångs).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.