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Myopic Loss Aversion, the Equity Premium Puzzle, and GARCH

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Author Info
Ågren, Martin (Department of Economics)

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Abstract

This paper concerns the distributional assumptions made on stock returns in the myopic loss aversion (MLA) proposed explanation to the equity premium puzzle. While Benartzi and Thaler (1995) assume temporal independence in these returns, we introduce a more realistic assumption incorporating conditional heteroskedasticity. This involves the work on temporal aggregation of GARCH processes of Drost and Nijman (1993). Using Swedish data, our estimation method produces an overall larger evaluation period than the one originally obtained by Benartzi and Thaler, e.g., over the sample period July 1961 through December 2003 the evaluation period increases from 12 to 17. This shows that MLA indeed can explain a large equity premium but, also, that the model is sensitive to the distributional assumption made on stock returns.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2005:11.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 21 Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2005_011

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Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
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Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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Related research
Keywords: Prospect theory; loss aversion; equity premium; GARCH;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Michael S. Haigh & John A. List, 2005. "Do Professional Traders Exhibit Myopic Loss Aversion? An Experimental Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 523-534, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. John Y. Campbell, 2002. "Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1974, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Friend, Irwin & Blume, Marshall E, 1975. "The Demand for Risky Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 900-922, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Durand, Robert B. & Lloyd, Paul & Wee Tee, Hong, 2004. "Myopic loss aversion and the equity premium puzzle reconsidered," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 171-177, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Thaler, Richard H, et al, 1997. "The Effect of Myopia and Loss Aversion on Risk Taking: An Experimental Test," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 647-61, May.
  10. Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "Prospect Theory in the Wild: Evidence From the Field," Working Papers 1037, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  11. Siegel, Jeremy J & Thaler, Richard H, 1997. "Anomalies: The Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 191-200, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-86, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1993. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Jun Liu, 2000. "Why Stocks May Disappoint," NBER Working Papers 7783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Uri Gneezy & Arie Kapteyn & Jan Potters, 2003. "Evaluation Periods and Asset Prices in a Market Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 821-838, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Constantinides, George M, 1990. "Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 519-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, . "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," CRSP working papers 494, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Engström, Per & Holmlund, Bertil, 2006. "Tax Evasion and Self-Employment in a High-Tax Country: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006:12, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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