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The Determinants of Urban House Price Fluctuations in Sweden 1967-94

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  • Hort, Katinka

    (Ministry of Finance)

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    Abstract

    This paper asks if the dramatic fluctuations in Swedish single family house prices experienced over the last decade have only been driven by fundamental demand and supply factors or if they result also from speculative behaviour in the housing market. A restricted error-correction model of real house prices is estimated on a Swedish panel data set using a fully modified estimator of the cointegrating relation. The results suggest that the boom and bust experienced around 1990 was primarily driven by fundamentals. The short term equation explains about 70 percent of the total variation in real house price changes. The estimate of the error-correction parameter suggests that adjustment following a shock to the market is quite rapid as compared with other countries such as the U.S, the U.K and Norway.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 1997:4.

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    Length: 52 pages
    Date of creation: 15 Jan 1997
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published in Journal of Housing Economics , 1998, pages 93-120.
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:1997_004

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
    Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
    Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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    Related research

    Keywords: house prices; adjustment dynamics; fundamentals; speculative behaviour;

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    Cited by:
    1. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.

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