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Forecasting based on Very Small Samples and Additional Non-Sample Information

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Author Info
Brännäs, Kurt () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
Hellström, Jörgen () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

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Abstract

Generalized method of moments estimation and forecasting is introduced for very small samples when additional non-sample information is available. Small simulation experiments are conducted for the linear model with errors-in-variables and for a Poisson regression model. Two empirical illustrations are included. One is based on Ukrainian imports and the other on private schools in a Swedish county.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Umeå University, Department of Economics in its series Umeå Economic Studies with number 472.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 21 Aug 1998
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Publication status: Published in Festschrift for tarmo Pukkila on his 60th Birthday., Liski, Erkki P, isotalo, Jarkko, Niemelä, Jarmo, Puntanen, Simo, Styan, George P H (eds.), 2006, chapter 3, pages 63-77, University of Tampere.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0472

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Postal: Department of Economics, Umeå University, S-901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Phone: 090 - 786 61 42
Fax: 090 - 77 23 02
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Web page: http://www.econ.umu.se/
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Related research
Keywords: Generalized method of moments additional information forecasting Ukrainian imports private schools

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General

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  1. Boylan, T. A. & Cuddy, M. P. & O'Muircheartaigh, I., 1980. "The functional form of the aggregate import demand equation : A comparison of three European economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 561-566, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Caroline Minter Hoxby, 1994. "Do Private Schools Provide Competition for Public Schools?," NBER Working Papers 4978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-20, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Constructing Instruments for Regressions with Measurement Error when no Additional Data are Available, with an Application to Patents and R&D," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1201-1214, September.
  6. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1984. "How Reliable Are Simple, Single Equation Specifications of Import Demand?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 120-28, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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